| Since the 21 st century, the global economic integration and trade liberalization develop fast, the house price fluctuations of various regions all over the world and countries show the same trend. The study found that housing prices of most countries of the world has been rising steadily from 2001 to 2006. But until 2007, house prices of most countries of the world dropped sharply, house price fluctuation trends are similar strikingly. Started by the falling of house price in the United States, house prices of other countries dropped continuously, the whole world fell into a real estate crisis. After 2010, house prices in most countries around the world show a rising trend, but there are also some countries did not get out of the financial crisis haze. What kind of relation exists among real estate markets of al countries?However, in the case that global house prices fluctuations show a convergence trend, there are also many special cases. Like Gemany’s house price keeps stable astonishingly, whereas Japan’s house price has been dropping in the past 20 years. Russia’s house price changes ups and downs but China’s house price has been rising all the time, for house price in 2014 is more tha three times higher than that in 1998. What is the reason that there exists big difference among every country’s house price fluctuation?What factors lead to the fluctuation of house prices? With the advancement of globalization, these are the problems we have to delve into. Through the study of these problems, we can see our own shadow from the development trends of real estate in the rest countries of the world, which can provide references for our country’s real estate development; At the same time, the specific factors that influence the global real estate price fluctuations has been clearly decided, which can also provide references for real estate development policy made by the government.Based on the analysis of the spatial correlation effect on global prices fluctuations and theory modeling of volatility influencing factors, this paper uses kruskal minimum spanning tree method to describe the global real estate price fluctuations association structures; It also uses spatial panel data model to make an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the real estate price fluctuations. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:1. Based on the theory of the global real estate price fluctuation space correlation effect, this paper selected 33 countries’ real estate price index quarter-data around the world between 2001 and 2014,using kruskal minimum spanning tree method to construct the spatial correlation structure of global house-price movements among countries. The study found that there exist different degrees of spatial correlation effect in global price fluctuations. Among them, house price fluctuation space correlation effect is stronger in developed capitalist countries in Europe and other; house price fluctuation space correlation effect is weak in some developing countries and large economies such as China, the United States and Germany. In different economic times, house price fluctuation space correlation effect degree s are different. The more dangerous the state of the economy is, the stronger the correlation degree is; The flatter the state of the economy is, the weaker the correlation degree is.2. On the basis of real estate price fluctuations influencing factors system at home and abroad, this paper built a real estate price fluctuation index system containing its own economic factors, population, interest rates, exchange rates, international capital flow, international trade, livability and technological innovation. And it uses spatial panel data model to do empirical research on real estate price fluctuation influence factors of 28 countries from 2001 to 2013. The study found that indexes such as the per capita GDP, foreign direct investment inflows, the proportion of export commodities, the rate of population increase, the ternary number of patents, the household savings rate, personal health spending and urban population have positive effects on the real estate price fluctuations, and the influencing strengths decrease one by one. Interest rate, the proportion of import commodities, the unemployment rate and research and development spending have negative effects on the real estate price fluctuations, and the influencing strengths also decrease one by one. |
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