| The national average house prices had increased by 2.57 times from the time of China’s real estate market reform to the end of 2015,in addition to a short period during the subprime mortgage crisis,the rise in prices has never stopped.As economic growth slowed down after 2008,house prices rose sharply instead.It caused attention about house price fluctuations and concern about house price bubble from all fields of people.At the same time,Chinese government issued a number of policies to regulate the real estate market,especially after 2008,but house prices fell into the delimma of "the more regulation,the more rise",which made the effectivenessof policies been questioned.The correct judgment of house price fluctuation and bubble is the basis for formulating,implementing and evaluating the regulation policy.Method and data are the key for it.The premise of price index method depends on that house prices are determined by the economic fundamentals.If not,the application of price index method will lose its significance.In terms of data,most of the current study use official data,but its quality is controversial.Data form with relative and average meaning ignores the heterogeneity of real estate.The rise of big data provides the data with heterogeneity character for the study of house price bubble,which can improve the accuracy of judgment,and also can provide a more reasonable basis for policy regulation.This paper focused on two main line of "house price fluctuations" and "policy regulation ".Based on house price decision theory and model,large data theory,HPM theory and government intervention theory,the large network data of China’s house prices was built by grabbing house price information of 30 capital cities and municipalities from two website: Fang.com,Lianjia.com.The HPM was constructed for the characteristic adjustment of house prices.Then after combing all influencing factors through literature research method,the most influential explanatory factors of house prices were selected by using the BMA method and the MC3 sampling technique.After that,fundenmental prices were got with regression method.The results of the house price bubble were obtained by calculating with the above two data.The paper analyzed the characteristics of price fluctuations with GDP,income,area,population,land and other point of view.House price fluctuation was defined as the result of two mechanisms of market and government intervention.Empirical analysis was carried out using the panel data of 30 provinces in 1999-2015.First,using the HP filter method,the long-term equilibrium prices under the trend were decomposed,and then the total effect of price fluctuations was obtained.Second,using variable reduction method to find out influencing factors of market house prices,house prices determined by the market mechanism were got by regression method,and then the market effect of house price fluctuations were calculated.Then policy effect determined by the government intervention mechanism can be obtained by subtraction.Using the deffirent influencing factors of house prices obtained from the two methods,based on the expansion of the four quadrant model,the paper built the analysis framework composed of using market and asset market,long-term and short-term and explains the formation mechanism of house price fluctuations.As to the effect of regulatory policies on house price fluctuations,first,it must consider whether house price fluctuation will be a response variable to the policy.On the basis of previous research,the paper built functions of monetary,financial and land policy variables responding to house prices.Using the time series data of 1998-2014 bounded by 2008,the paper analyzed the stance and reaction of regulatory policy to house prices in different stages by using GMM model.Second,on the basis of the analysis of the mechanism of the impact of policy on house prices,the regression model between house price and policy variables was established.Finally,the impulse response function was used to analyze the dynamic effects of the policy variables on the house price,and the variance decomposition method was used to determine the contribution of each policy variable to the house price fluctuation.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)One of the reasons for policy failure is there has deviation on the house price bubble judgment.Current measurement methods and data can not fully reflect the heterogeneity of real estate.So it is difficult to reflect the real situation of the house price fluctuation and the house price bubble.Policy may exacerbate the house price fluctuation as time goes on.(2)Among hedonic variables affecting the price,elasticity of construction area on house prices is greater than 1;flexibility of room number to house prices in most cities is negative,and the absolute value is less than 0.5;the building earlier,and the house price higher;in most of the cities,higher floor means lower price.(3)Land factors and income factors are the determining ones of fundamental prices-long-term equilibrium prices,especially land factors,including the total cost of land,land supply and land prices.Effect of land market to long-term price is most prominent.Real estate prices in the short term are determined by factors such as income,investment,cost,technology and labor.(4)There was only a local house price bubble in our country,not a comprehensive house price bubble.House prices in 80% of cities were within a reasonable range of fluctuations.Among 30 capital cities and municipalities,half of the cities’ house prices were overvalued,the other half cities were underestimated,which meaned the actual house price did not reflect the true value.GDP and land had a threshold effect on the house price fluctuations.The house price volatility had the characteristics of heterogeneous variation and income effct.The population factors can not explain the differences between regions.(5)After 2009,in most of the provinces and cities,house price fluctuations were positive,but the magnitude was not large,with a clear character of convergence and spce progressive.The house price fluctuation in 1999-2015 under the market mechanism formed a complete cycle,and the house price was underestimated in most of the time.The determination of the market mechanism on house prices did not become differently due to the difference of the regional market maturity.Expansion policy in 2008-2010 was an important reason for rising prices,especially for the eastern provinces.Policy regulation with negative effect in the true sense was after 2012.But regulatory policies were not synchronized in different regions,which transfer from east to west.(6)The optimal policy rules need to respond to output,inflation and its lag and housing prices when the house price variable was introducd.The response of money supply on house prices was contrary to theory.The money supply was an important reason for rising prices.On the whole,the monetary policy did not make a significant response to house prices,but promoted the rise in house prices.Reaction of land policy gradually strengthened.Response of fixed asset investment tended to decline.Significance of response of interest rates and money supply to economic growth and inflation show the staggered character.(7)Money supply had the greatest impact on the house price fluctuations.Though there was a certain degree of reducion,it was still an important reason for rising house prices.At the same time,interest rates pushed up house prices.The impact of land supply on house prices was limited and declining.The impact of fixed asset investment on house prices had become significant after 2008.Interest rates had a negative impact on house prices in the short term,while the impact of money supply in the long term.Fixed asset investment and land supply had short-term impact on housing prices significantly.Among the 4 policy variables,money supply had the greatest impact on housing prices,followed by fixed asset investment,interest rates and land supply.(8)To achieve the target of real estate market developping healthily and orderly with stable house prices,we should play a decisive role in the market mechanism of house prices,implement the city facilities strategy,strengthen the response of regulatory policy to house prices and the construction of regularization and institutionalization of policy,perfect the land supply system so that it can play a role in determining house prices.The main innovation of this paper lies in:(1)Based on the concept of big data,the paper built big data of house prices of 30 provincial cities and municipalities.Market house prices were adjusted by HPM.And then house prices with the character heterogeneity were obtained.The paper fitted and derived the long-term equilibrium price by basic value method,so as to obtain the results of the house price bubble.Therefore,the paper putf forward a method and framework to measure and judge the house price bubble.(2)In the framework of market mechanism and government intervention mechanism of house price decision,the house price fluctuations produced by two different mechanisms were decomposed by regression method,so we can respectively judge and evaluate the the influence level of two mechanisms on the house price fluctuations.(3)Before analyzing the influence of policy on the house price fluctuations,the paper constructed the policy reaction function with house price variables,and the optimal policy rules were derived respectively.The stance and response of monetary,fiscal and land policy on the house price fluctuation were analyzed empirically.Under the same framework,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of the three policies on house price fluctuations,including static and dynamic effects. |
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