| In the recent years,the housing system innovetion of China has achieved rapid development and made great progress continuously,the real estate market showed explosive growth and boomed up,the real estate price rised to a new level and surmount new top frequently.Taking measures to govern the real estate market in order to make it develop healthly and steadly has become a important topic which attract the government’s attention.More and more regulatory policies are carried out,to control the continuous rising housing price and supervise the real estate market.Financial system has become a powerful supporter,as a supporter,financial system attracts the idle fund and supplies it to the real estate market lacking capital,meanwhile,the real estate industry is a industry charcaterd by high profits,this character attracts all kinds of financial institutions to join into this high margin industry,due to this phenomenon,the correlation between this industry and the financial industry becomes more and more intensive,they develop coordinately.But the deepening correlation between them also makes the the real estate influence the financial system easily and frequently.There exists bubble in China’s housing price,to some degree the housing price inflates its real value,thus making the real estate risk accumulate,if the real estate bubble bursts,the risk of real estate will influence our country’s financial industry by various transmission mechanism.In the beganing,the article combines the domestic and foreign research results,and states the factors which influences the housing price and the fluctuation characteristics of the real estate price.Meanwhile expounds the connotation of financial stability and factors affecting the financial stability.And summery the the four transmission mechanisms of the real estate price fluctuations affecting the financial stability in detail,explaining the process of the housing price change affecting the financial stability.Then,we selectes four variables,they are financial stability index,real estate prices,GDP and interbank interest rate,based on these four variables we build a directed acyclic graph model to analyse the Contemporaneous causality amoung the four variables and then build a structure vector autoregressive(SVAR)model to test the impact of each variable on the financial stability index,and make analysis,then draw the conclusion:The abnormal fluctuation of housing price was an important reason to affect financial stability and cause systematic risk.Systematic risk can exist out of the condition of real economy station.In a short time,rasing interest rate is a effective measure to control housing price and make financial system stable,but in a long time,its effect will become weak.In order to prevent the abnormal fluctuation of housing price affecting financial stability,we must start from the real estate price volatility mechanism of financial stability to start exploring the relationship between them,not only to curb housing’s price excessivefluctuations,but also to prevent fluctuations impacting the financial stability from the perspective of transmission mechanism,maintaining the steady development of economic value.Finally,this paper summarizes the analysis no matter from the perspective of theoretical or empirical,and based on these summaries to put forward some corresponding policies and suggestions. |
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