The Research Of The Real Estate Market Stability And Forecast Based On Housing Price To Income Ratio

China is a long history and culture of ancient civilizations, "clothing, food, shelter," these cultural elements also runs through the five thousand years of civilization, has always been the housing problem is a social and economic problem, but also to a certain extent affect social and political stability. Stable, citizens of a regional real estate market housing and low-income housing to solve the degree directly relates to the region's economic political and social development and people's livelihood level.In order to relations and development trend analysis of the three, based on the current housing policy conditions in Wuhan, the housing market as the research object, with the housing price to income ratio as the core, using comparative method from horizontal and vertical analysis of the 2007-2013 year each income housing price to income ratio, and based on this data Grey Prediction model(1,1) model to predict the 2014-2020 of different income groups housing price to income ratio, change and trend analysis of the different level of living home buyers the ability, and the analysis of the demand of public rental housing in the reaction. The main content of this study includes the following parts:First of all, the basic concept and theory, introduces the definition of housing price to income ratio and the commonly used formula, improved calculation method and formula of the formula, and then introduces the Grey Prediction model(1,1) model and its application in prediction of housing price to income ratio.Secondly, the main economic and social data collected during "Wuhan Statistical Yearbook 2008-2014" and "Wuhan Yearbook 2008-2014", on the basis of the data from the housing price to income ratio improved algorithm to calculate the different level of living the family class housing price to income ratio, and carries on the analysis and the change law of drawing standard deviation; the stability of the market, the real real estate on the response ability to purchase and the demand of public rental housing in proportion to do further analysis.Finally, with 2007-2013 years of housing price to income ratio for the original series, based on the established Grey Prediction model(1,1) to predict the data in 2014-2020. In the original data and the prediction data,drawing of 2007-2020 years of housing price to income ratio variation and standard deviation, are analyzed, the real estate market stability and the reaction ability to purchase and the demand of public rental housing ratio.The results of data analysis indicate that: low income housing price to income ratio is more volatile than higher income residents, the overall tends to be stable; to 2020 all sectors of housing price to income ratio tends to be the median of 6.2, the demand of public rental housing before 2016 was in the stable stage of high proportion, but after 2017 the proportion of demand greatly reduced, and after 2020 no new demand.