Research On Value Evaluation Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project’s Franchise Based On Real Options

Urban Rail Transit Projects have an important strategic significance for urbanization and social welfare improvement.Over the past dozen years,under the context of a large investment in government infrastructure construction,urban rail transit projects has developed rapidly.In order to further attract social capital to participate in the construction and operation of urban rail transit projects,China has continuously promoted the PPP mode from the policy level.For example,the government grants franchises of urban rail transit projects to project company.At the same time,due to the widespread phenomenon of the urban rail transit PPP projects that the income is not enough,the government provides feasibility gap subsidies to make up for project income.The franchise rights value of reasonable evaluation can play a promotional role in balancing the interests of the government and social capital,and can mobilize the enthusiasm of social capital.It also can accelerate the construction of urban rail transit projects,and better meet people’s travel needs.Based on the analysis of the value of the franchise right of urban rail transit PPP projects,the necessity of evaluation and evaluation methods,this paper holds that the commonly used evaluation methods have certain limitations and ignore the value brought by the uncertainty and management flexibility in the project.While the real option method can just make up for this shortcoming.This paper focuses on the analysis of the option value of the project’s bilateral passenger volume guarantee.By combining the earnings method with the real option method,an evaluation model is built to get the minimum level of assurance and evaluate the franchise value of urban rail transit PPP projects.In order to verify the rationality of the model,this paper takes the tram T2 PPP project in Shunyi of Beijing as an example,analyzes the construction,operation and income of the project,and finds that the project’s income is not enough,and the government needs to provide a feasibility gap subsidy.Based on the feasibility gap subsidy provided by the government,the evaluation model is used to obtain the minimum passenger volume and the franchise value of the project.Compared the franchise value of the project with the results under the earnings method,it is found that the franchise value evaluated by the earnings method is low,and the real option method highlights the value contained in the project’s uncertainty and management’s flexibility,so the results are greater than the results of the earnings method.The value evaluation model proposed in this thesis can be applied to actual project evaluation and help the government and other investors in ensuring the project’s passenger volume guarantee and making investment decisions.