| Urban rail transit is playing a more and more important role in China while theprogress of urbanization is accelerating. The investment and construction of urban railtransit has the characteristics as huge fund demand, long development cycle, and lowfinancial income. Therefore the government or other investor needs to do a wellassessment on uncertainty of urban rail transit projects to ensure the accuracy andvictory of investment.Base on the analysis on the characteristics of urban rail transit and traditionalassessment method of investment, this thesis probes into the application of real optionin urban rail transit projects. In the first, the information related is summarized in thisthesis, including the definition, classification and economical characteristics of urbanrail transit projects as well as the property of investment on this kind of projects.Furthermore, this thesis argues about the disadvantages of the application oftraditional assessment method and proposes the application of real option on urbanrail transit. Thenceforward, this thesis proposes the types of real options that may becontained in urban rail transit projects when standing at the side of investor. Thesereal options include the option to defer, the option to change scale and the option togrowth. Base on the analysis of real option valuation, the model of the option to deferon urban rail transit projects is constructed and the parameters are defined in thisthesis. In this model, the method, that can be used to calculate the critical financialvalue of optimization investment, is proposed. It is indicated that the critical valueunder the option to defer is bigger than the one under the traditional assessmentmethod. The different value between them is the very value of real option to defer. Atthe last part of this thesis, a real case is used to test and verify this model. |
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