Study On Economic Motivation And Effect Prediction Of China’s Entry Into CPTPP

In recent years,trade protectionism has been prevailing and the trade friction has been escalating.Our country actively seeks the multilateral trade opportunity to deal with the loss caused by the trade friction.After the United States withdrew from TPP,although the trade level and comprehensiveness of CPTPP led by Japan is not as high as TPP,it is still the highest level of free trade agreement in the world.After China joined the RCEP,with an eye on the CPTPP,China formally submitted the application to join the CPTPP in September 2021.Joining the CPTPP is not only beneficial to the improvement of our overall trade level,but also to the further development of our economy.Therefore,this article analyzes the economic motivations of our participation in CPTPP countries,simulates and predicts the economic effects of our participation in CPTPP,and puts forward some policy suggestions to deal with the impact of the establishment of CPTPP on different industries.First of all,the research content of this paper is reviewed,related concepts such as CPTPP,trade potential and free trade agreement are defined,and the theory of trade competitiveness and complementarity and the theory of economic effect of free trade area are expounded,laying the foundation for the related research in the following paper.Secondly,analyze the current situation of trade between Chinese and CPTPP countries,and study the competitive complementarity between different industries and CPTPP countries.The results show that China is highly dependent on the import and export of CPTPP Asian countries.China has strong competitiveness in apparel textile and other manufacturing industries,and is highly complementary with most CPTPP countries in apparel textile,mechanical and electronic equipment and other manufactured products.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the economic motivations for our country to join CPTPP from the perspective of economic strategy and trade.The results show that China’s participation in the CPTPP at the economic strategic level can promote the process of free trade zone,conform to the national economic development strategy,promote the level of service trade liberalization,and promote the deepening of economic and trade cooperation with the Asia-Pacific countries.In terms of trade,there is great trade potential between China and the CPTPP countries,and the trade expansion space is still 61% by 2020.Then,the GTAP model is used to forecast the influence of different circumstances on our macro economy,output of different industries,import and export.Research shows that if China successfully joins the CPTPP,macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and social welfare will be greatly improved,and some of China’s industrial output and import and export will also be improved to a certain extent.Finally,based on the previous empirical research,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from four aspects: maintaining the competitiveness of our competitive products,protecting local disadvantaged industries,improving China’s trade potential with CPTPP countries,making preparations for joining CPTPP,and paying attention to the difficulties and challenges China may face in joining CPTPP.