| In recent years,China’s real estate market has experienced a period of rapid development,many cities have serious supply exceeds demand phenomenon.2015 China launched a supply-side structural reform policy,real estate inventory as one of the five tasks of the central "three to make up a drop",the purpose is to solve the real estate inventory,to promote the healthy and orderly development of the real estate market.The purpose is to solve the real estate inventory and promote the healthy and orderly development of the real estate market.Since the full implementation of the supply-side structural reform policy,local governments have combined the central monetary and fiscal policies with the shantytown demolition and resettlement to implement real estate inventory removal in a "localized" manner.The adjustment of housing policy will have an important impact on consumption through the structure of household expenditure,and consumption is related to the people’s livelihood and well-being.The monetary compensation received by demolished households can only be used to purchase residential properties,which will affect the consumption decisions of residents.Therefore,it is important to analyze the impact of real estate de-stocking policy and housing voucher policy on residents’ consumption to provide theoretical basis for the government to formulate real estate policies.In the empirical study part,this paper quantitatively examines the effects and mechanisms of real estate destocking policies affecting residential consumption in the context of supply-side structural reform based on Chinese urban data from 2013 to 2019 and the Keynesian absolute income hypothesis.The results of the empirical analysis show that the destocking policy has a significant negative effect on residential consumption,with a greater impact in regions and cities with high levels of economic development and a more pronounced depressive effect on the consumption of non-subsistence goods.Mechanism tests suggest that this result stems from the crowding-out effect from increased household housing expenditures,while the wealth effect of rising house prices is not significant enough.To investigate the effect of the "third" resettlement policy of shantytown rehabilitation,housing vouchers,on residents’ consumption,this study uses multi-period DID to estimate and test the effect of housing voucher resettlement policy on residents’ consumption and its mechanism of action.The results show that the housing voucher policy has a significant dampening effect on residents’ consumption,which is heterogeneous and long-run in these cities;this finding holds after a placebo test for robustness and a synthetic control method for heterogeneity.Further mechanistic tests find that housing voucher placement has a nonsignificant effect on house prices and a significant negative effect on real estate inventory,which in turn has a crowding-out effect on residential consumption.The article argues that,in order to break the "impossible triangle" of stabilizing housing prices,promoting expenditure and removing inventory,and to achieve stable economic development,it is necessary to expand the supply of subsidized housing and reduce the negative macroeconomic effects of the real estate industry while adhering to the basic policy of "no speculation in housing".In the current context of weak economic growth and insufficient consumption,whether to allow the restart of shanty reform and housing voucher resettlement or even the implementation of a large area is becoming a dilemma in front of the policy-making departments.The policy-making department should focus on the regulation of total real estate inventory,strictly control the scale of real estate development,and cautiously restart the shanty reform and housing voucher resettlement policy;solve the problem of rotten buildings as soon as possible,moderately encourage second-hand housing transactions,and inject liquidity into the residential consumption and new housing market. |
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