Study On The Destocking Pressure Of Residential Commercial Housing And Its Influencing Factors

When the supply of residential commercial housing market is greater than the demand,a large number of residential commercial housing vacancy will occur.Inventory can cause many bad influence,the serious problem of excess inventories will affect the real estate investment growth,thus influence GDP growth,if the housing market is in a state of high inventory for a long time,the value of the land,such as physical assets as collateral will drop sharply.In the Central City Work Conference held in December 2015,it was pointed out that one of the five tasks of economic and social development in 2016 is to resolve the real estate inventory.Subsequently,many local governments began to introduce relevant policies and measures to reduce the high inventory in the real estate market.This article mainly around residential commercial housing inventory problems,analyzed three aspects of content,from the view point of residential commercial housing demand and supply,to calculate the equilibrium price theory,using the equilibrium price and the actual sales price calculation to inventory pressure exponent of the cities,with the measured data to inventory pressure,using the country’s 68 cities in 2005-2015 panel data.The second is the analysis of the influencing factors of inventory.Using the data of 68 cities across the country,the previously calculated de-inventory pressure index and the newly added vacant area are respectively used to measure the inventory.The grey correlation model of panel data is constructed to analyze the correlation degree between each influencing factor and inventory.Thirdly,Xi ’an is selected as a new first-tier and second-tier city,and Bengbu is selected as a representative of third-tier and fourth-tier cities,so as to compare and analyze the difference of destocking policies and measures between different cities and their effectiveness.The conclusion of this paper is that the destocking pressure of residential commercial housing in third-tier and fourth-tier cities is greater than that in first-tier and second-tier cities,and the destocking pressure in central cities is greater than that in eastern cities.In terms of inventory influencing factors,the four factors of completed housing area,investment amount completed in this year,GDP and population are the most correlated with inventory.On the way of destocking,third-tier and fourth-tier cities mainly stimulate the demand of local residents to buy houses.The new first-tier and second-tier cities not only stimulate the demand of local residential commercial houses,but also actively introduce foreign population,and finally achieve the goal of defusing residential commercial house inventory.Based on the research results,this paper finally gives policy suggestions on urban destocking,including optimizing industrial structure and promoting economic development in third-tier and fourth-tier cities.To build a docking channel between resettlement houses and commercial houses;We will speed up the reform of the household registration system and take different measures to remove inventory in different cities.