An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of Real Estate Purchase Restrictions On Housing Prices

Property purchase limits is a home purchase restriction policy introduced by China.Its goal is not only to control the excessive growth of urban housing prices,but also to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry by this means.In order to study the effect of property purchase limits,this paper adopts HCW method and synthetic control method to conduct research.In the HCW method,Beijing is regarded as the treatment group.By comparing the differences of the average price of dwelling house in Beijing between the true value and the counterfactual value when property purchase limits is abolished or not,they can reveal the effect of the implementation within different months during the sample period,and assess the economic effect of the policy on housing prices.According to the research,the implementation of property purchase limits has a significant inhibitory effect on the average price of dwelling house in Beijing along with an effect of 0.995%.In order to test the stability of this conclusion,we consider Shanghai as another sample,and find that the policy has a similar effect on the average price of dwelling house in Shanghai,and the effect is 0.557%.In the synthetic control method,Tianjin is regarded as the treatment group.The weighted averages of the treatment group are used to synthesize the sales prices of commercial housing after the policy has been adopted.We can analyze the effect of the policy by comparing the differences between the true value and the synthetic value.According to the research,we can find that prior to the implementation of the policy,the true value and the synthetic value is well-fitted.After implementing the policy,the synthetic value exceeds the true value quickly,and the difference continues enlarging,which indicates that the policy has a significant inhibitory effect on housing prices in Tianjin.When the treatment group is replaced by Hangzhou,the conclusion proves to be fine.