| Housing system reform has ended up the welfare housing system,bringing huge demands of the real estate.The state council published ’the notice on promoting the sustained and healthy development of real estate market’ in 2003,establishing the pillar industry position of the real estate.Therefore,the real estate has developed rapidly,real estate investments increase to 9597.9 billion in 2015 from 1015.4 billion in 2003.The development of real estate lead to the prosperity of GDP which increased to 67670.8 billion from 2003 to 2015,average growth rate is about 14 percent.Meanwhile,the level of urbanization upgrades continuously,urbanization rate reaches at 56.1 percent in 2015 while 40.53 percent in 2003,with average growth rate of 1.3 percent.The rapid development of GDP supports the development of urbanization and real estate.On one hand,real estate industry provides the carrier of urbanization.On the other hand,the development of urban brings huge housing demands for real estate.Further,the improvement of urbanization and real estate promote the development of economics.However,the development between urbanization and real estate exists discordance.For example,urbanization emphasizes the population of urban and the area of urban excessively,the real estate investment goes too fast and the housing prices are too high.However,housing price ascends year after year,the residential needs are restrained to some extend while investment needs expand by degrees.Our government takes many macro-economic controls to prevent the high housing price.However,the effect could not be satisfactory because of the existing of land finance and the examination mechanism of GDP,the increament of real estate investments is still high and housing price is not descended.The supply of housing exceeds the demand of housing,bringing about the high inventory of real estate.Up to 2015,the areas of complete apartment on sale is about 0.72 billion square meters,the areas of future house on sale is around 2.5 billion square meters.According to the saleable areas of commodity house in 2015,the destocking cycle of complete apartment is about 6.7 months,of which is about 30.2 months when future houses are added in.Compared to the reasonable destocking cycle,the situation is rather serious.The large destocking cycle results in the decrease of the real estate investment,encumbering economic growth.According to the Central Economic Work Conference in 2015,the mission of economic development in 2016 contains digestion of capacity,destocking,deleveraging,cost reduction and compensating shortcomings.Abosolutely,destocking has become the country strategy.Urbanization provides the power for the development of real estate,while there are some inharmony between urbanization and real estate.The report is basing on the coordinate point of urbanization and real estate,analyzing the reason of stock of real estate qualitatively and quantitatively.Firstly,the author establishes the research ideas drawing on the existing papers at home and abroad.Secondly,combing the process of urbanization and classifying it into two stages which contain the start-up of urbanization and the growth stage of urbanization,finding out that our urbanization is faced with lower quality,the rapid expansion of urban land and the delay of industry development in spite of the great achievement of urbanization.Thirdly,the author studies the situation of real estate development and analyzes the causes of real estate stock by combing the process of real estate.Fourthly,introducing some theories which contain agglomeration economic theory,position developing theory and industrial development theory to analyse the mutual effect between urbanization and real estate,finding out that the two has a good influence on each other.Fifthly,analyzing the development level of urbanization and real estate quantitatively by applying factorial analysis and the software of SPSS 18.0.The research indicates that the both has the problems of imbalance development among provinces horizontally and slow development longitudinally.Sixthly,building coupling degree model between urbanization and real estate and analyzing the degree between urbanization and real estate horizontally and longitudinally,points out that there are serious discordance between urbanization and real estate.Specifically speaking,there are only 12 provinces which are in coordinate situation and the levels are also not high,and the degree increases gradually and slowly.Lastly,the author established a panel data model to anlyze the influence on real estate destocking cycle,and discovers that one unit increasement in coordination between urbanization and real estate will lead to 2.4 month decrease of destocking cycle,the destocking cycle will decline 0.3 month when the housing price drop down 1000 yuan.However,the research states that the increase of population urbanization rate will increase the destocking cycle which goes against the theory hypothesis.The reason may be that the population urbanization rate is permanent population urbanization rate and could not reflect the real urbanization level.Therefore,we should enhance the household population urbanization rate and implement household registration system reform n order to improve the real urbanization level.The causes of real estate stock are mainly resulted by the discordance between urbanization and real estate,and the fundamental solution is to improve the coordinate degree.There are three suggestions,firstly,propel the household registration system reform and speed up the process of peasant workers citizenization in order to accomplish the real urbanization.Secondly,impel the construction of house rental market and improve the housing system to exert the inhabit property of real estate.Lastly,decrease the housing price properly in order to enlarge the consumption of commercial housing,accelerating the destocking of real estate. |
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