An Empirical Study On The Impact Of The “Belt And Road” Initiative On The Agricultural Economic Development Of 16 Provinces In China’s Arid Regions

In order to respond to the trend of multi-polarization and economic globalization in the world,promote the orderly and free flow of economic factors and achieve sustainable development,the central government first proposed the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013.Since its introduction,the whole society has gradually realized the importance of the construction of the Belt and Road for economic development and actively supported it.although the economic and social development of Chinese provinces participating in the initiative has increased compared to the past,the intensity and manner of participation in the construction of the Belt and Road by Chinese provinces and municipalities varies greatly due to the obvious differentiation of growth rates within the Chinese economy,which may affect the impact of the Belt and Road initiative on different regions.However,due to the obvious differentiation of growth rates within China’s economy,there are significant differences in the intensity and manner of participation in the Belt and Road construction among Chinese provinces and cities,which may affect the promotion of the Belt and Road initiative to the economic development of different regions.In particular,the overall growth rate of the agricultural economy in the sixteen dry-land provinces in China has slowed down,and the net effect of agricultural economic development in the participating dryland provinces needs to be further verified.Therefore,it is urgent to analyze the level of agricultural economic development in dryland provinces under the Belt and Road Initiative and to propose countermeasures for the development of agricultural economy in dryland provinces under the Belt and Road Initiative.This paper analyzes and organizes the municipal-level panel data on the agricultural economy of Chinese dryland provinces from 2005 to 2020 through statistical yearbooks,and finally selects 138 cities in dryland provinces to build an analytical framework for the impact of implementing the "One Belt,One Road" on the development of the agricultural economy of Chinese dryland provinces,and study the impact of the "One Belt,One Road" initiative on the agricultural economy of Chinese dryland provinces through a propensity score matching double difference model model(PSM-DID).The PSM-DID model was used to study and evaluate whether the Belt and Road Initiative affects the agricultural economic development of 16 dryland provinces in China.Through the binary logit model,the control variables such as the proportion of government expenditure,the level of foreign direct investment,the level of fixed asset investment,regional industrialization,the proportion of tertiary industry,the ability to receive education,and the degree of openness to the outside world are downscaled for propensity score matching,and then the matched16 Chinese dryland provinces are subjected to DID analysis to obtain the net effect of the "One Belt,One Road" initiative.The net effect of the "Belt and Road" initiative is obtained,and the actual impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on the prefecture-level cities in the dry zone of China is measured effectively.The study also analyzes the heterogeneity of the results of different regions’ participation in the Belt and Road Initiative,and finally draws conclusions and proposes countermeasures.The findings show that whether or not a region participates in the Belt and Road Initiative,the level of investment in fixed assets,educational capacity,openness to the outside world,government budget expenditure,industrialization,and industrial structure all affect the development of the agricultural economy in drylands to different degrees.Among them,the "Belt and Road" initiative plays a significant positive role in the development of dryland agricultural economy,and in the development of dryland agricultural economy,the education capacity and industrial structure of the dryland area all play a significant role in promoting the economic growth of dryland agriculture,while the government budget expenditure and the degree of openness to the outside world negatively affect the development of dryland agricultural economy;Through heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the Belt and Road Initiative has a significant promotion effect on the agricultural economy of the central dryland provinces,no significant promotion effect on the agricultural economy of the eastern and western dryland provinces,and a significant inhibiting effect on the northeastern dryland provinces.Finally,we suggest the problems in the development of China’s dryland agricultural economy in the context of "Belt and Road",including strengthening policy guidance,doing a good job in the supply-side structural reform of dryland agriculture,and seeking a high-quality development model;strengthening regional technical cooperation and investment in dryland agriculture,and improving the utilization rate of water resources in dryland agriculture;increasing the participation of dryland cities in the "Belt and Road".The purpose is to enhance the participation of dryland cities in the "Belt and Road" and to increase the branding of dryland agricultural products to enhance the premium price of dryland agricultural products,etc.,in order to more effectively realize the role of the "Belt and Road" initiative in promoting regional agricultural economic development.