Factors Influencing The Agricultural Product Export Trade In Areas Along The "Belt And Road" Initiative

"Agriculture flourishes and foundation gets strong,farmers enriched and nation gets prosperous,villages stabilized and society gets security." In 2007,the Central Government No.1Document put forward accelerating the implementation of agriculture "going out" as a national strategy.In 2008,the central government proposed to promote the construction of export agricultural products quality trace ability system,and to support the development of agricultural export credit and credit insurance.In 2009,at the onset of the post-financial crisis era,the central government advocated a good control of agricultural import and export to prevent the impact of over-importing on domestic market.In 2010,the central government proposed to support the expansion of export of advantageous agricultural products,promote the construction of agricultural products quality trace ability system,support the construction of export base,develop the agricultural products processing trade,strengthen the international agricultural science and technology and agricultural resources development cooperation,support agricultural enterprises to use foreign capital and encourage them "going out".In 2016,it is proposed to strengthen the agricultural investment,trade,technology,animal and plant quarantine cooperation among countries and regions along "Belt and Road" initiative,support state-owned enterprises to carry out transnational operations,cultivate internationally competitive grain business and agricultural enterprise groups,expand the export of agricultural products with characteristics and high added value,combat smuggling of agricultural products,and improve the trade remedy and industrial damage compensation mechanism.All this shows that China’s agricultural "going out" strategy is getting more meticulous.This thesis,combining the empirical analysis and normative analysis,the historical evolution and logical reasoning,describes the current situation and characteristics of the export of agricultural products in the provinces and cities involved,and trade complementarity among major agricultural trade partners from the three levels of total volume,structure and efficiency.By using the gravitational model and the panel data model,and applying the method of generalized data estimation,the influencing factors of agricultural products export are analyzed and tested empirically.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:processing depth is not enough and with low added value,which are the internal factors of provinces and cities involved getting slow agricultural development.so it is difficult to obtain high profits in the international market.The slowdown in the world economy,the doldrums of world demand for bulk commodity,theprice depression and the frail logistics,stretched channel chains are the outside reason.The analysis on the determinants of export of agricultural products in provinces and cities along the "Belt and Road" reveals that the Economic scale,labor force scale,technical level,trade distance,transportation cost,tax revenue,geographical location,organization system are playing important roles.Finally,it is necessary to firmly open our minds and try to innovation.Relying on the natural resources and improving the international competitiveness of agricultural products.Strengthening the investment risk assessment and prevention and controlling mechanisms and other aspects of the policy recommendations.