| In recent years,under the strategy of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization,rural e-commerce and agricultural industrialization development complement each other.Promoting the coordinated development of the two is of great development significance for improving the comprehensive strength of regional agriculture and realizing the optimization of agricultural industrial structure.This paper studies the coupling and coordinated development relationship between rural e-commerce and agricultural industrialization in southern Xinjiang.To explore the interaction relationship and coupling mechanism between the two.The index system of comprehensive development level of rural e-commerce and agricultural industrialization in southern Xinjiang was established.The entropy weight method was used to empower each index,and the comprehensive development evaluation model,improved coupling degree,coupling coordination degree model,comparison prediction model and grey correlation degree model were constructed.The comprehensive development level,coupling degree level and coupling coordination degree level of rural e-commerce and agricultural industrialization in southern Xinjiang from 2012 to 2021 were calculated.On this basis,the spatial autocorrelation analysis of the coupling and coordination relationship between the two is carried out,and the grey prediction and the quadratic exponential smoothing method prediction comparison model are constructed.The model with small error is selected to predict the coupling development trend.The grey correlation degree method is used to screen the indexes with strong correlation degree between the two coupling relationships,so as to put forward suggestions for improving the coupling and coordinated development of the two.Through the research on the coupling development of rural e-commerce and agricultural industrialization in southern Xinjiang from 2012 to 2021,the results are as follows :(1)The comprehensive development level of the two shows a fluctuating upward trend as a whole,and the development level of different regions varies with time.From 2016,the growth rate of rural e-commerce development level is greater than the growth rate of agricultural industrialization development level,indicating that local governments began to attach importance to the construction of rural e-commerce.In the past ten years,the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the two have been rising,and the average coupling degree has increased from 0.3812 to 0.6682.From the lower coupling level to the medium coupling level.The average coupling coordination degree increased from 0.2967 to 0.6231,and the type of coordinated development increased from the intermediate imbalance level to the primary coordination level.The two are gradually forming a good coupling development relationship.(2)Through spatial autocorrelation analysis,there is a positive spatial correlation between the coupling degree and the coupling coordination degree.Most of the areas are in HH aggregation and LL aggregation areas,showing agglomeration in space.In terms of time prediction,the relative error predicted by the quadratic exponential smoothing method is 0.038,the relative error predicted by the grey prediction GM(1,1)model is 0.009,and the grey prediction GM(1,1)model is better.The prediction results show that the coupling coordination relationship between the two will reach the intermediate coordination level in 2023-2026.(3)The results of grey correlation analysis show that the number of rural e-commerce demonstration counties,the number of e-commerce activity enterprises,the proportion of retail sales of agricultural products network,the number of rural e-commerce service stations,the number of agricultural leading enterprises in the agricultural industrialization system,the number of science and technology progress award projects,the proportion of fixed assets investment in the primary industry,and the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery contribute greatly to the coupling and coordinated development of the two. |
