| Logistics is an important link in the smooth circulation of the national economy.Currently,the economy has shifted to high-quality development,helping the logistics industry achieve the development goal of "making progress while maintaining stability,and improving quality while maintaining stability." However,as the main manifestation of the development level of the logistics industry,the issue of low efficiency is still prominent.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct research on the spatiotemporal evolution trend and influencing factors of China’s logistics efficiency.This thesis first calculates China’s logistics efficiency during the "12th Five Year Plan" and "13th Five Year Plan" periods using the DEA model;Secondly,using standard deviation ellipses,spatial autocorrelation,kernel density estimation,Markovσ and β Methods such as convergence are used to analyze the space-time,dynamic,and convergence of logistics efficiency;Thirdly,using a random forest model to clarify the importance of various factors affecting logistics efficiency in China,and then based on a spatial econometric model to explore the influencing factors of logistics efficiency and their spatial spillover effects,to clarify the extent to which each factor affects logistics efficiency.The results show that:(1)China’s logistics efficiency has an overall upward trend during the research period,but presents an upward and downward cycle;There are differences in logistics efficiency between regions and within regions in China,especially in the west and northeast.The overall spatial characteristics of logistics efficiency are "strong in the east and weak in the west",with a trend of shifting the center of gravity to the west;There is a significant positive correlation in space,but the degree of aggregation has weakened.(2)The external evolution trend of logistics efficiency in China based on nuclear density shows that the overall nuclear density curve presents a double peak,with single peaks in the east and west,and double peaks in the middle and northeast weakened to varying degrees;The internal evolution trend of logistics efficiency based on Markov theory indicates that the probability of maintaining a stable state is far greater than that of different state transitions,and the efficiency state levels of neighboring provinces will have an impact on their own state transitions.(3)Based on σ The discrete effect of convergence indicates that it does not exist in the whole country,the east,and the northeast σ Convergence,opposite in the central and western regions.Be based on β The "catch up" effect of convergence indicates that absolute convergence exists in all three time periods under the classical convergence coefficient.After considering spatial autocorrelation,there is a significant "catch up" effect,and the overall convergence speed is accelerated during the "12th Five Year Plan" period.(4)Random forest shows that the most important factor in other time periods and regions is location advantage,except for the "13th Five Year Plan" period in the east and central regions;The most important factor in the eastern region during the 12 th Five Year Plan period is toll roads,while the rest of the period is technological innovation.(5)The empirical results of spatial econometrics indicate that efficiency in different time periods and regions has a negative spatial spillover effect on themselves,with varying degrees and directions of impact;The decomposition of effects indicates that the factors and directions of significant indirect and total effects in each region remain consistent at the same time.For example,during the 13 th Five Year Plan period,the core factors in each region were opening up to the outside world,while the eastern and western regions were suppressed,while the rest were opposite.Based on the above conclusions,propose development suggestions for increasing efficiency in the logistics industry,and promote the high-quality development process of modern logistics during the 14 th Five Year Plan period. |
PDF Full Text Request