Research On The Early Warning Of Financial Crisis Of Listed Pharmaceutical And Biological Companies Based On PCA-Cox Mode

With the aging of the population and the basic well-off standard of living,people’s demand for a healthy life has increased.The Party also mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "2035 long-term goals" that it actively promotes the development of the pharmaceutical and biological industry.Although the future benefits of the pharmaceutical and biological industry are very considerable,the current situation is "large,small,scattered",that is,the overall scale of the industry is large,and the scale of individual enterprises is small and scattered.At the same time,due to the characteristics of high risk,high investment and long investment payback period,listed pharmaceutical and biological companies are faced with a variety of risks,which has become a pain point for their rapid development.If the risk is not controlled,it may lead to a serious crisis and make a huge amount of capital go up in smoke.If the risk of scientific and reasonable early warning prevention,then you can minimize the loss.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to construct a financial crisis early warning model which is highly accurate and suitable for pharmaceutical and biological industry.In terms of empirical research,starting from the characteristics and risk points of listed pharmaceutical and biological enterprises,7 first-level indicators and 52 second-level warning indicators including financial and non-financial indicators such as profitability,debt paying ability,growth ability,operating ability,cash flow ability,innovation ability and corporate governance are selected.Cox risk regression model is designed and adopted to predict whether financial crisis occurs in listed pharmaceutical and biological enterprises.In view of the numerous related indicators that affect the occurrence of financial crisis,this paper uses principal component analysis(PCA)to eliminate redundant information among related indicators,so as to reduce the dimension of indicators required by the model and achieve the purpose of optimizing the prediction accuracy of the model.The observation period of the model is from January 1,2003 to September 30,2022,and the survival time is set from the beginning of the market to the time when the special treatment is performed,that is,when the ST is performed.According to the ratio of 1:1.6,ST and non-ST companies are selected as sample data,and 83 enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are finally selected as research objects.In the follow-up index processing,the paper elaborated on the processing process using principal component analysis,and then fitted the processed index with Cox risk regression model to build a model,and obtained the most significant five first-level indicators that affect the possible financial crisis of enterprises,among which the risk factors are corporate governance and solvency.The protective factors are operational capacity,profitability and innovation capacity.Finally,by comparing the accuracy of the PCA-Cox risk regression model with the Cox risk regression model constructed under traditional methods and logistic regression model,it is found that principal component analysis can optimize the prediction performance of the Cox risk regression model,and the PCA-Cox model has a better prediction effect than other financial crisis early warning models.In terms of case analysis,the article takes Harbin Pharmaceutical Shares,a leading pharmaceutical enterprise in the past,as the case object.Using the more accurate PCA-Cox risk regression model,the financial situation of Harbin Pharmaceutical shares in the next three years is not ideal.Through the detailed analysis of the financial and non-financial information of Harbin Pharmaceutical Company,it is found that in the aspect of corporate governance of risk factors,there are mainly problems such as excessive concentration of equity,one share dominance and unreasonable design of stock incentive policy.In terms of the solvency of risk factors,the main problems are single financing mode,unreasonable fund structure and poor asset realization ability.In the aspect of operation capacity of protection factor,there is the problem of unstable asset utilization efficiency.In terms of the profitability of protection factors,the main problems are lack of scientific and reasonable investment decisions and insufficient motivation of sales model.Finally,in the aspect of protecting factor innovation ability,the main problems are not long-term strategic vision and insufficient R&D investment.These are the problems that may lead to financial crisis if Harbin pharmaceutical shares are not prevented in the future.In view of this,this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions.In terms of corporate governance,enterprises should strengthen the construction of internal control,avoid "tunnel digging" and optimize the stock incentive plan.Based on the solvency,enterprises should choose multiple financing methods,optimize the capital structure and improve the realization ability of assets;Based on the operation capacity,enterprises need to strengthen the management of monetary funds,inventories and accounts receivable to improve the efficiency of asset use;Based on the profitability,the investment decision should be scientific and reasonable,keep pace with The Times and innovate the "sales model" to increase the profitability of enterprises;Based on the innovation ability,this paper proposes that the enterprise should have a long-term strategic vision,strengthen the construction of the enterprise’s R & D talent team,attach importance to R & D,increase R & D investment and other five aspects,hoping that Harbin Pharmaceutical Stock can pay attention to these aspects,avoid the real financial crisis of the enterprise and affect the development of the enterprise.It is also expected that the model constructed in this paper and the preventive suggestions put forward for Harbin Pharmaceutical shares can be of reference significance to other listed pharmaceutical and biological enterprises in China.