Early Warning Research On Financial Crisis Of Listed Companies In The Photovoltaic Industry Based On EVA

The pv industry is an inevitable result of the "low-carbon economy",which is mainly combined with the demand of new energy,and plays an important role in the current international energy competition.In recent years,the photovoltaic industry has been developing rapidly in China and abroad as a sunrise industry.In our country,the number of pv enterprises has grown from less than 100 in 2008 to as many as 400 in 2011.Domestic policy stimulus and large foreign markets have made China a major pv manufacturer.2012 pv enterprises in our country under the pressure of international "double reverse" policy,and before the blind expansion of production enterprises,and in terms of high capacity,especially in core areas,such as slow development of the new film,heterojunction,foundation of innovation ability is not high,the whole photovoltaic industry management difficult,even to save the country developed a number of policy,still have little effect,to this day,pv industry is still not out of the cold winter.Study,establish a reasonable and effective photovoltaic(pv)of the listed company financial warning model can help enterprises to find problems in time,effectively avoid risk,solve the photovoltaic industry in our country present problems and obstacles in the development of break.This article based on the analysis of early warning of financial crisis,EVA model is used to build a financial crisis early warning model,and then EVA is incorporated into the financial management system on the basis of the analysis of the financial crisis warning system of EVA,,take advantage of the EVA adjustment indices to make up for the accounting profit cannot give full consideration to the cost of equity capital is insufficient,this article from the aspects of solvency,profitability,etc as a whole the building photovoltaic listed companies based on EVA financial index system,selection of samples is between 2014 and 2015,respectively,for the first time by special processing of six photovoltaic(pv)of listed companies and 8 normal photovoltaic(pv)of the listed company,and using Logistic early warning model of these companies is processed by a special before the first(t-(3)years of financial statement data modeling analysis,through 14 photovoltaic(pv)of the listed company financial crisis probability P is calculated,and compared with standard threshold analysis,finally the accuracy of model experiment proved that the financial crisis.Research conclusion is:using Logistic established a financial crisis warning model based on EVA of photovoltaic(pv)of the listed company financial crisis have a stronger ability to predict(accuracy are in more than 80%),and the longer distance by special treatment,prediction accuracy is lower;The shorter the distance,the greater the predictive power,the lower the rate of miscalculation.In addition,in the course of the study can be found,the liquidity ratio,has certain effect on financial management after EVA correction of net sales and net profit growth rate of photovoltaic listed companies,but through the creation of Logistic which contains the three index regression model to guide the financial management for financial listed companies can reduce the PV the crisis effectively.