Study On Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Export Commodity Structure In Henan Province

Agriculture is our national economy’s foundation,which affects the fundamental of our country.Recently,because of China-Us trade friction,the global economy is complex and changeable,which makes the export of Chinese agricultural products face great challenges.Henan has great potential for development and optimization space in China.In addition,it actively promotes the strategy of"opening up and strengthening the province".It supports the development of agricultural products going out,and promotes the transformation of the export structure of agricultural products from point to surface,from domestic to foreign,and from primary processed products to deep processing,thus promoting the growth of the trade volume of agricultural products.This paper is based on the classic theories of international trade:comparative advantage theory,national competitive advantage theory,supply and demand theory.Using the comparative analysis method to analyze the situation of the export trade of agricultural products,and analyzing its development process in the vertical direction,and comparing the national share of its agricultural exports and the distribution of exports.Using Lawrence Index（LI Index）to analyze the export commodity structure of agricultural products.Using the concentration index（HHI index）to analyze the concentration degree of agricultural products export categories.Then,it analyzes that the current export commodity structure of agricultural products is mainly characterized by high concentration of varieties,weak non-price competitiveness,and less high-quality agricultural products.Selecting the Lawrence（LI）as represent the change range of the export commodity structure of agricultural products.Selecting the gross national product（INGDP）of the importing country,the gross agricultural product（AGDP）,the population of Henan（POP_{e x}）,and the population of the importing country(POP_in),the distance cost（Dist）and the RMB rate（IR）as explanatory variables.The data is panel data which covers 30 countries that trade agricultural products with Henan Province.Through the panel unit root test（HT）,F（chow）test,and Hausman test.Then,building a panel fixed effect model for regression analysis,which results is the positive correlation between the export commodity structure of agricultural products and the gross domestic product of the importing country,the gross agricultural product of Henan Province and the population of the importing country;The negative correlation with the population of Henan Province,the distance cost and the CNY exchange rate.Finally,in order to solve the main problems in the export commodity structure of agricultural products,this paper will puts forward targeted countermeasures.