REER’s Influence On The Quantum And Commodity Structure Of Export

In recent years, REER is appreciating over the long term. Changing the style of economic growth and optimize the structure of foreign trade are the pursuit of government as well as the direction of development in the future. Being a traditional foreign trade province, Zhejiang’s total export and export commodity structure are meant to be effected by REER. Three questions are discussed in this paper:REER’s influence on the quantum of export. REER’s influence on the structure of export on level 1, namely the increase of manufactured goods in the total export; REER’s influence on the structure of export on level 2, namely the increase of capital and technology-intensive products in manufactured goods export.The theory, literature and mechanism of the influence exchange rate has on foreign trade are introduced in this paper, which followed by a simple description of exchange rate institution in different periods of China. A detail description of Zhejiang’s foreign trade is given in aspects of trade volume, way of trade, trade body and the concentration of trade product. In the way of TSC, the competitiveness of primary product, manufactured goods and capital and technology-intensive products is discussed in this paper.60 period monthly data from Jan.2007 to Dec.2011 are used to set the VAR model to solve the questions above. ADF test which is used to inspect stability, cointegration test which reflects a long-term equilibrium, VEC model which acts as a short-term fixed function, impulse response function which can depict effects of impact, variance decomposition model and Granger causality test which can show causal relationship between two facts are used in the paper.The conclusion of the paper is drawn based on the empirical results and theory analysis: The appreciation of REER can restrain the total export significantly; The appreciation of REER can optimize the commodity structure of export both on levelⅠand levelⅡin the long run. In the short run, however, the appreciation of REER cannot optimize the commodity structure of export significantly. As for other facts, Zhejiang’s import has significant positive influence on export, both in volume and commodity structure. FDI contributes little to the volume of export of Zhejiang but plays a great role in optimizing the commodity structure of export. Industrial added value of Zhejiang has no significant influence on the volume and commodity structure of export. Reasonable suggestions are available combined with hot points of policy.