| The trade effect of Outward Forward Direct Investment(OFDI)is a typical research question in international economics,which reveals the alternative,complementary or uncertainty relationship between OFDI and international trade,laying more stress on quantitative study.With the evolution of investment and trade theory,research on the relationship between the two parties has become more thorough and microscopic,with the perspective switching from the quantitative to qualitative.There are more and ore researches focusing on the structural level.However,current study on the impact of OFDI on the structure of export commodities still remains on the quantitative level,which needs badly an improvement from the qualitative perspective.Since the implementation of the“going out” strategy,China’s OFDI has developed rapidly and its foreign trade has experienced rapid growth for many years.However,both the investment and trade mainly rely on the quantity development,and they are also faced with the challenge from "total growth" to "structural transformation".Therefore,with China’s economy stepping into an era of high-quality,the study on the relationship between China’s OFDI and export trade from a qualitative perspective,in other words,how to promote the optimization and upgrading of export commodity structure through the rational development of OFDI,is of great significance,both theoretically and practically.Based on the above background,a literature review is conducted firstly.Through a clear and detailed generalization of the classic theories related to OFDI and international trade,this study systematically explores the impact of OFDI on the export commodity structure from the perspective of quantity and quality by using the method of logical reasoning and on the basis of the heterogeneous investment motivations.It reveals that the OFDI with different motivations could affect the export commodity factor structure through the trade flow and the industrial structure on the level of scale,and also affect the export commodity technical structure by the effect of resource allocation,market deepening and technology feedback on the level of technology.Secondly,with the sample data of China and 72 countries(regions)in terms of investment,trade and other related indicators during 2010-2019,using the model of static panel data,this study empirically analyze the relationship between the China’s OFDI and export trade again,which also lays the foundation for the analysis of the OFDI’s effect of the trade structure from the scale level.The conclusions show that: There is a complementary relationship between China’s OFDI and export trade,and China’s OFDI can significantly increase the scale of export commodities.Thirdly,using the same sample data and empirical analysis methods,this dissertation analyzes the impact of OFDI on export commodity factor structure from a scale level on the basis of the standard classification of the export commodity’s factor intensity.It also tests the OFDI’s effect of the trade structure from the perspective of heterogeneous motivations.The conclusions show that:(1)China’s OFDI has the greatest impact on the export volume of the products with intensive capital and technology.(2)China’s OFDI helps to optimize the factor structure of export commodities.(3)Technology-seeking OFDI plays the most significant role in promoting the optimization of the factor structure of export commodities.Then,through the calculation of the technology and quality of export commodities,by constructing dynamic panel data model and using the two-step system GMM estimation method,the dissertation respectively explores the impact of China’s OFDI on the technology and quality of export commodities,and tests the the influence mechanism.According to the standard classification of technology intensity,this dissertation analyzes the impact of OFDI on export commodity technology structure from the technical level,and tests the OFDI’s effect of trade structure from the perspective of heterogeneous motivations.The conclusions show that:(1)China’s OFDI has a positive impact on the overall technique of export commodities,and its influence mechanism covers the effects of resource allocation and technology feedback.(2)China’s OFDI has a positive impact on the overall quality of export commodities,and its influence mechanism covers the effects of resource allocation,market deepening and technology feedback.(3)China’s OFDI has the biggest effect on the improvement of the technology of medium-tech export commodities,followed by high-tech commodities,and it has a significantly negative effect on the technology of low-tech export commodities.(4)The improvement of China’s OFDI on the quality of three types of export commodities is in descending order: low-tech commodities,high-tech commodities,medium-tech commodities.(5)Whether from the perspective of technology or quality,China’s OFDI has promoted the optimization and upgrading of the technological structure of export commodities to a certain extent.In addition,the technology-seeking OFDI plays the most significant role in the optimization and upgrading of the technological structure of export commodities.Finally,from the above research results,it is safely concluded that on the whole,China’s OFDI can promote the optimization and upgrading of export commodity structure;the factor structure effect of China’s OFDI is better than the technology structure effect;the market deepening effect of China’s OFDI is weak;technology-seeking OFDI has the most significant positive effect on the optimization and upgrading of export commodity structure.Based on this,this dissertation puts forward corresponding policy suggestions and looks forward to the possibility of further research.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1)It expands the classic theory of the relationship between OFDI and trade,extending from the aggregate relationship to the structural relationship.The influence mechanism of OFDI on export commodity structure may be different from that of export commodity scale,and the perspective of structure in this research is an innovation.(2)It details the structure of export commodities,conducting it from the two dimensions of factor structure and technical structure,which makes it convenient to analyze the structural characteristics of export commodities from the perspective of quantity and quality.(3)It further explores the influence mechanism of OFDI on the structure of export commodities.Based on the heterogeneous investment motivations,the influence mechanism of OFDI on export commodity structure is probed from the scale and technology levels,and the original theoretical mechanism is improved.(4)It measures the structure of export commodities from the perspectives of scale,technology and quality respectively,and conducts a systematic empirical test of the impact of OFDI on export commodity structure.Exploring the impact of OFDI on export commodity structure by the change of the scale,technology and quality of export commodities is to deepen the research of the relationship between OFDI and export trade from the quantity level to the quality level. |
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