Study On The Fluctuation Characteristic And Risk Warning Of Pork Price Under The Impact Of Swine Epidemic

As the world’s largest pork producer,China’s pig industry has become an important pillar industry to promote the development of national economy.The price of pork is related to the “vegetable basket” of the people and affects the quality of life of the residents directly.But in recent years,the outbreak of pig disease has caused the “roller coaster” fluctuation of pork price and increased the risk of pork price.The epidemic has become an important threat to the pork market.The after-effects of the surge in pork prices and the plunge in pork prices caused by the major pig epidemic have been the concern of the whole society.This paper first analyzes the mechanism of the non-linear impact of the pig epidemic on pork price,collects the monthly data related to pork prices from February 2009 to February 2020,and constructs a threshold regression model with width index of the pig epidemic as the threshold variable to study the threshold effect of pig epidemic on pork price fluctuation.On the basis of the non-linear fluctuation of pork price caused by the pig epidemic,a variety of factors that lead to changes in pork price are considered,and an index system of pork price prediction is established.This paper integrates correlation analysis,mean square error analysis and principal component analysis to extract feature indicators from a variety of factors,and then input SVM(support vector machine)model to forecast pork price.Finally,the risk early warning of pork price is carried out based on the prediction results.Through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions: there is a threshold point for the impact of the lagging five-period width index of swine epidemic on the growth rate of pork price.There are two operating mechanisms for the fluctuation of pork price.When the width index of swine epidemic is lower than the threshold value of 0.35,the impact of the pig epidemic has no significant positive impact on the fluctuation of pork price,and the pork price is in a stable running state.When the width index of swine epidemic is higher than the threshold value of 0.35,the pig epidemic has a significant positive impact on the fluctuation of pork price.Secondly,based on the SVM model,the risk warning of pork price is carried out.The lagging one-period width index of swine epidemic,the lagging six-period monthly pig stock,the lagging one-period pork import,the lagging one-period pig breeding profit,the lagging one-period soybean meal price,the lagging six-period macroeconomic climate consistency index and the lagging six-period RPI are selected to establish the SVM model.After determining the optimal parameters of SVM,the minimum mean square error is 1.032,the square correlation coefficient is 0.919,and the prediction accuracy of the model is high.The early warning results of pork price risk show that pork price has a significant downward trend in the five months from May 2021 to September 2021.The actual and predicted warnings are generally severely low and low,and the pork market is in a state of oversupply.The actual and predicted warnings of pork price fluctuation in October 2021 are in a normal state.In November 2021,the forecast warning degree of pork price is seriously high,and the supply of pork market is insufficient.In this paper,the non-linear relationship between pig epidemic and pork price fluctuation is systematically expounded from two perspectives of theoretical analysis and empirical research.This has important theoretical and practical significance for strengthening the emergency control mechanism of pig epidemic,improving the pork price forecasting information system and the pork price risk warning system,and achieving the healthy development of the pork market.