Research On The Financial Risk Early Warning Model Of Service Industry Listed Enterprise

Good financial situation indicates the enterprise has good potential for development and larger profits margin,while adverse financial condition easily leads to enterprise bankruptcy and reorganization.Financial risk of deterioration objectively exists,not changing with individual will,but the happening of the financial risk,associated with all kinds of signs,can be recognized through the early warning mechanism in advance.With the rapid development of services industry listed companies in recent years,increasingly larger proportion in the national economy,their financial risks also happen from time to time.Although many financial risk early warning methods arise timely,having advantages and disadvantages,their feasibility is limited with strict conditions.This paper is to research the warning methods suitable for the service industry listed companies,guide them quickly judging the financial risks and give references to service industry for scale and benign development.This paper mainly investigated the application of Clustering analysis method and the physics of Fermi distribution function method into the financial risks Early warning of service industry listed Enterprises;after that,the results were compared with the Logistic regression method with highly evaluation in the early warning field,and finally pointed out the significance of the research methods and limitations.Firstly,this paper reviewed the literature of the research achievements at home and abroad,then elaborating the concepts of the financial risk early warning and selecting the required samples,such as indicators,which laid a foundation for the application of financial risk early warning methods.Secondly,this paper mainly discussed the clustering analysis method and Fermi distribution function method.After the clustering analysis of the index of initial loading matrix fitting method,optimized from the initial factor loading matrix,and the index of factor analysis method respectively,thestudy indicated the former method was more significant and different methods of index selection could have a significant impact on early warning.In addition,the study indicated the Fermi distribution function method could effect the enterprise financial risk early warning,and the warning effect was even ideal after introducing physics and economics meaning of Fermi distribution function.The study also found the effect of correlation analysis in the Fermi distribution function method was better after the indexes,obtained from factor analysis and correlation analysis respectively,were applied into early warning in the Fermi distribution function method.Finally,an empirical study was carried on by applying the research findings into listed companies of China’s service industry.At the same time,the Logistic regression method was used for comparative analysis of early warning in order to further understand the similarities and differences not only between the Fermi distribution function method and its similar methods,but also between clustering analysis and its similar methods.At last,in the conclusion part,this paper briefly elaborated the advantages and disadvantages of the three early warning methods and suggestions for improvement.