| In recent years,the drastic fluctuations in pork prices have become one of the prominent problems and major risks faced by the development of China’s pig industry,affecting people’s lives and the stable development of the pig industry.In this context,studying the fluctuation patterns of pork prices and warning future pork prices and their risks has important theoretical value and practical significance.On the basis of reviewing the history of the formation and evolution of pork prices in China and the development and current situation of the pork market,this article clarifies the impact of policies and markets on the formation of pork prices in China,clarifies the formation mechanism of pork prices in China at present,and conducts a descriptive analysis of the fluctuation of pork prices in China.The main work is as follows:(1)Completed the analysis of the fluctuation pattern and overall characteristics of pork prices.1)Seasonal adjustment of the price series was carried out through factor decomposition method,and the trend period of the price series was decomposed using H-P filtering method.Combining with the traditional "valley valley" method,it was found that within the sample interval,the prices of pork,live pigs,and piglets all experienced four complete fluctuation periods,with similar fluctuation periods for pork prices and live pig prices,while piglet prices and pork prices The average length of the pig price cycle is about 47 months.2)Establish an ARCH family model to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of three prices,and the results show that both pork and live pig price fluctuations have clustering characteristics,risk-free return characteristics,and asymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks.3)The SVAR models with upward and downward transmission were established to analyze the transmission mechanisms of the three prices within the endogenous price system.The results showed that there is a mutual transmission relationship between pork prices and pig prices,as well as between pig prices and piglet prices in the endogenous price system.Piglet prices and pork prices are not mutually transmitted in the endogenous price system.Pork prices have an impact on piglet prices,while piglet prices have no significant impact on pork prices.By analyzing the results obtained from the impulse response function and variance decomposition,it can be seen that the response of pig prices to the impact of pork prices and piglet prices within the endogenous price system is more significant,while pork prices and piglet prices are more significantly affected by their own price shocks.This also indicates that pigs are located in the middle of the industry chain and are of great importance to the entire price system.(2)Establish a comprehensive early warning system indicator system.1)Based on the relevant national documents on pork price regulation from 2009 to 2021,three indicators were determined as the warning indicators for the single indicator price risk prediction subsystem: the pig to grain ratio,the number of breeding sows on hand,and the change rate of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities.2)From the perspectives of supply and demand,15 indicators were selected as warning indicators,including sow stock,live pig stock,piglet price,and chicken price.By calculating the time difference correlation coefficient between them and pig price,four indicators,namely sow stock,live pig stock,soybean meal price,and chicken price,were determined as the leading indicators.Seven indicators,including pig to grain ratio and piglet price,were consistent indicators,And use these 11 indicators as warning indicators for the price risk monitoring and warning subsystem.3)From the perspectives of internal and external shocks,four primary indicators are endogenous,cost,demand,and macro,with price indicators as the main body.Twelve price related indicators,including pork prices and piglet prices,are selected as the warning indicators for the price risk prediction subsystem,and the weights of the warning indicators are determined by combining the AHP method and entropy weight method.Among them,pork prices,piglet prices,corn prices,and beef prices have a greater weight,The interpolation method was used to validate and analyze the price risk prediction index system.In a total of 233 months,22 months were in the safe range,23 months were in the warning range,and 188 months were basically safe.There were no risk months,and more months were in the warning range in the first half of the year than in the second half.Moreover,the holiday effect had a significant impact on pork price fluctuations.(3)Establish a comprehensive warning system for pork price risks.1)Establish a single indicator warning model with the pig to grain ratio as the core warning indicator,and use the Holt Winters three parameter index smoothing model to predict the pig to grain ratio,the stock of fertile sows,and the price of lean pork.The results show that a second level warning will be issued in the13 th to 16 th,19th,and 20 th weeks of 2023.2)Establish a Chinese pork price risk monitoring and warning model with 11 indicators such as the stock of breeding sows,the stock of live pigs,the price of soybean meal,and the price of chicken as warning indicators.Apply the coefficient of variation to determine its weight in the system,and then synthesize a comprehensive warning index as the warning indicator.Draw a warning signal light diagram,and the results show that the stock of breeding sows and live pigs has a clear leading role in early warning of pork price fluctuations,However,the warning effect of the comprehensive warning indicators is not significant.3)Establish a Chinese pork price risk warning model based on the KLR model and the binary Logit model.According to the characteristics of the model,the truncation probability value is used as the warning indicator.On the basis of the warning indicator system of the warning subsystem,by comparing the noise signal ratio of individual warning indicators in the KLR,the pork price change rate and the change rate of live pig prices that have a significant impact on the Chinese pork price risk warning indicator system are ultimately selected Six warning indicators,including piglet price change rate,beef price change rate,income change rate,and CPI change rate,are used to establish a KLR non parametric warning model for warning prediction.Through the calculation of noise signal ratio,the KLR model is modified,and the Goodness of fit value of each early warning index is calculated.The research shows that the early warning system of China’s pork price risk established by using the improved KLR nonparametric early warning model has a good prediction effect.By calculating the conditional probability of pork price risk,the study verifies the pork price risk in China from 2020 to 2021.4)By using the noise signal comparison of the KLR model to screen the indicators of the alarm prediction system,a binary Logit model was established by selecting the change rate of pork price,beef price,CPI,and income.The model’s leading indicators were defined to determine the meaning of the dependent variable values.Through the evaluation score of the alarm prediction system,it was confirmed that October 2003,April 2007,March 2011,and August 2019 were the months of risk occurrence,From this,the dependent variable sequence was obtained and the model was fitted.Considering the principle of combining qualitative and quantitative methods to determine independent variables,the rate of change in corn prices was included in the model to achieve better fitting results.Finally,the functional form of the binary Logit model was obtained,and the risk of pork prices from June 2020 to May 2021 was warned.The warning results were basically in line with the actual situation,with a monthly accuracy rate of 75%.Finally,the usage process of the comprehensive early warning system was explained.(4)Proposed policy objectives and countermeasures for regulating pork price fluctuations.1)Comprehensively enhancing the government’s ability to regulate the pork price market can effectively alleviate fluctuations in pork prices.In future regulation,active regulation should replace passive regulation,and the content of regulation policies should be changed in a timely manner with price as the core.2)It is recommended to use the stock of breeding sows as the core indicator for policy warning,the stock of live pigs as auxiliary warning indicators,the pig to grain ratio as the core monitoring indicator for policy warning,and the average retail price of lean meat as auxiliary monitoring indicators.A comprehensive warning platform for pork price risk should be established at the national level,and advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing should be introduced for real-time monitoring and accurate prediction to improve warning capabilities.3)Supervision should be carried out in different ways from different perspectives such as industrialization,scale,marketization,disease prevention and control,and environmental protection measures.We need to adopt reasonable regulatory measures,focus on combining short-term and long-term regulatory measures,and improve the efficiency of regulatory policy implementation.Specific measures include strengthening information construction and early warning,improving the mechanism for adjusting pork prices,unblocking the transmission mechanism of the pork market,accelerating the development of pig industrialization,promoting the improvement of the pork market system,establishing a sound monitoring and control system for pig diseases,reducing the impact of pig diseases,correctly understanding environmental protection policies,and promoting environmentally friendly pig production. |
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