Research On Early-Warning Of Risk In Xinjiang Cotton Price

Cotton industry is a pillar industry in the agricultural development of Xinjiang,and the fluctuation of cotton price has brought important influence on the income of cotton farmers and the economic development of Xinjiang.Therefore,the risk early-warning research of Xinjiang cotton prices can help predict the cotton price risk information in advance,to take measures in advance to adjust the planting structure and external price influence factors such as size,stability of Xinjiang cotton prices,for promoting the sustained and healthy development of cotton industry in Xinjiang and Xinjiang economic development steadily forward is of great significance.In combination with the practical situation of Xinjiang cotton industry development in this article,from the Xinjiang cotton production and trade status quo,analysis the current situation of the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang,the Xinjiang cotton prices status and price risk form different aspects such as analysis of the current situation of Xinjiang cotton price risk,using statistics,agricultural economics,regional economics and other related theory knowledge,from2000-2017 in Xinjiang cotton price risk early-warning index of warning signs,to build the risk early-warning index system of Xinjiang cotton prices,three layers BP neural network was used to construct the Xinjiang cotton price risk early-warning model,The ARMA model was used to predict the warning indicators of cotton price risk in Xinjiang from 2018 to 2020,and the prediction indicators were brought into the warning model to predict the risk of cotton price in Xinjiang from 2018 to 2020.Based on the warning results,specific Suggestions were given.Specifically according to the following seven chapters:The first chapter introduction.Based on the background and significance of the research,this paper analyzes the importance and necessity of the research on the early-warning of cotton price risk in Xinjiang.Based on the research methods and achievements in related fields at home and abroad,the research ideas,research contents and research methods of this paper were determined,and the sources of related research data were explained.The second chapter is an overview of price risk theory.This paper expounds the theories of price risk,,early-warning,related elements of price risk early-warning,price risk early-warning and research methods,and discusses the research steps of price risk early-warning.The third chapter analysis of Xinjiang cotton industry development and price risk.From Xinjiang cotton production and trade of Xinjiang cotton industry development present situation are analyzed,from Xinjiang cotton prices status and risk aspects such as form,this paper introduces the present situation of Xinjiang cotton price risk in establishing the status of Xinjiang cotton industry throughout the country at the same time,also clear the current situation of the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.The fourth chapter is the analysis of the warning source of cotton price risk in Xinjiang.Based on the actual situation of cotton market in Xinjiang,the warning and warning sources of cotton price risk in Xinjiang are summarized as supply and demand warning sources and macroeconomic and policy and environmental warning sources.In terms of the sources of demand,the paper mainly analyzed the cotton sales situation,residents’ consumption level and downstream product prices in Xinjiang.In terms of macro economy and policy environment,this paper analyzes the state macro-control,international cotton price and other macroeconomic factors.It can be concluded from the discrimination of the police sources that there are many factors influencing the cotton price risk in Xinjiang,involving a wide range of areas and mixed data.The fifth chapter is the construction of cotton price risk early-warning index system in Xinjiang.First of all,has been clear about the construction of early-warning index system of train of thought,this paper expounds the principle of early-warning index system building,including the index of the typical principle,operational principle and sensitivity principle,then,in the fourth chapter of police source discrimination on the basis of screening on warning index,from the aspects of supply,demand and macroeconomic and policy environment three aspects to screen the21 warning signs index,and the Xinjiang cotton price volatility index as the,in the end,to build therisk early-warning index system of Xinjiang cotton prices.The sixth chapter based on BP neural network model of Xinjiang cotton price risk early warning research.On the basis of establishing the cotton price risk early-warning index system,the three-layer BP neural network model is used to realize the early-warning of cotton price risk in Xinjiang.Firstly,the establishment of the warning model structure and the training of the model are analyzed,and then the empirical analysis of the warning model is carried out.In the empirical study,the early-warning indicator of Xinjiang cotton price from 2000 to 2016 was taken as the training sample data and input into the model for training.Then the indicators in 2017 were used as the test sample data and input into the model for testing.Finally,the ARMA model was used to predict the indicators in 2018-2020 and the predicted results were input into the model for early-warning.The seventh chapter conclusion and suggestion.Based on the early-warning of cotton price risk in Xinjiang,it is concluded that the risk alarm degree of cotton price in Xinjiang in 2020 is "no alarm".This paper puts forward some Suggestions on the importance of price risk early-warning research,the adjustment of planting scale,the sustainable development of industry,risk transfer and the establishment of production and marketing channels.