A Study On The Guiding Effect Of Benchmark Land Price On Transferred Land Price In The Primary Land Market

Land price management system is a management system established by the state for land transactions,tax collection and management,and monitoring of land price trends,mainly for the primary land market.The core of the land price management system in China is the benchmark land price,which is indispensable for the smooth operation of the land market and the formulation of various land prices in the land market.This thesis establishes a research framework for the effect of benchmark land prices in guiding the primary land market based on summarizing and sorting out existing studies and related theories.Firstly,the data related to benchmark land prices and land premiums offered in Wuhan,Chengdu,Qingdao,Suzhou and Lanzhou from2018-2021 are obtained through crawlers,and the correlation between benchmark land prices and land premiums offered is explored based on two levels using exploratory statistical analysis.At the level of mathematical statistics,the correlation between the benchmark land price and the land price offered is analyzed through the correlation coefficient;at the level of spatial analysis,the spatial correlation law between the benchmark land price and the land price offered is analyzed and summarized by visualizing the effect of the guiding role of the benchmark land price by category in each city.Secondly,by using the propensity score matching method,the guiding effect of benchmark land price on land premiums in the primary land market is investigated;meanwhile,on this basis,the differences in the guiding effect of benchmark land price on land premiums for different planning purposes are investigated and the regression results are analyzed.Finally,based on the empirical results of the guiding effect of benchmark land price on land premiums,the problems of the existing benchmark land price are sorted out and corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.The results of the regressions are used to identify the problems of the current benchmark land price and to propose policy recommendations.According to the research analysis of this thesis,the core contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the correlation analysis reveals that there is a significant positive correlation between the benchmark land price and the concession land price in the primary land market,and there are differences in the strength of the correlation between the benchmark land price and the concession land price in different planning land uses.Among them,the correlation between the benchmark land price and the land premium is the strongest for the residential land sample,and the correlation between the benchmark land price and the land premium for the industrial land sample is weaker.There is a significant negative correlation between land grade and benchmark land price,while the correlation between land grade and concession land price is not strong.The visual analysis of the data on the ratio of benchmark land price to land premium offered reveals that the spatial distribution pattern of benchmark land price and land premium offered has a strong correlation with land grade and distance from the city center.Second,in the primary land market,the benchmark land price has a certain inhibitory effect on the offered land price.Calculations based on the propensity score matching method show that the application of benchmark land price results leads to a decrease in the average value of the land premiums offered in the primary land market by RMB 138.941/m~2.This empirical result indicates that the maximum price of the benchmark land price assessment has lowered the expected revenue of the government in land disposal,regulated the governmental behavior in land disposal,kept the land supply within a reasonable range,and thus regulated the disposal land price,resulting in a downward trend of the disposal land price.Third,there are differences in the effects of the benchmark land price on the guidance of the land premiums offered in different planning uses of land.The results of the propensity score matching based on different land use data samples show that in the commercial land market,the application of benchmark land price results has led to a decrease in the average value of land premium of RMB 2205.821/m~2.The benchmark land price of commercial land has played its proper role as a guide to regulate land price,i.e.,to prevent the land price from being too high.In the residential land market,the application of the benchmark land price results led to an increase of RMB 741.727/m~2.in the average value of land premiums.This result indicates that the benchmark land price for residential land has not played its guiding role in restraining the excessive increase of land premiums,which is mainly due to the influence of the supply structure.At present,the supply of residential land is low and the supply of industrial land is high,and the difference in economic supply of land also affects the guiding effect of benchmark land price.This leads to the conclusion that the benchmark land price has failed to play its guiding role in curbing land price increase in the residential land sample.In the industrial land market,the application of the benchmark land price results led to a decrease in the average value of the land premiums offered by 19.177 RMB/m~2.For industrial land,the benchmark land price is supposed to play a guiding role in raising land price,but in order to make more room for pursuing lower land price for industrial land,the actual benchmark land price for industrial land is set too low,thus making the benchmark land price for industrial land fail to play its guiding role in preventing the low land price from being set.