Research On Export Restrictions Of Grain In Multiple Countries And The Security Guarantee Of Major Agricultural Products In China

In recent years,with the disruption of global agricultural supply chains caused by major infectious diseases,frequent extreme weather events exacerbating food shortages,and geopolitical crises leading to skyrocketing food prices,world grain trade has encountered unprecedented shocks.Food shortages and panic have alternated in many countries,prompting decision-makers to pay close attention to food security.Represented by Russia,Argentina,Vietnam and Thailand,multiple countries have taken extreme measures of export controls on grain in order to strengthen their resilience in production and storage for ensuring domestic food security.China’s dependence on foreign food is evident;therefore trade is the main means of balancing its grain deficit.The export control policies of multiple countries may pose potential impacts on China’s food supply security;however there are few studies that quantify this impact on the Chinese economy.Based on this background information,this study focuses on 18 economies including China,the United States,Russia and Ukraine as research objects.Firstly it analyzes China’s external dependence degree for its main agricultural products;secondly using a Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model it sets three different policy scenarios based on various countries’ implementation of export control measures: some countries completely restrict agricultural product exports;some limit 50% of agricultural product exports;Russia-Ukraine conflict scenario where both Russia and Ukraine completely restrict relevant agricultural product exports-analyzing the impact effects of restricted grain exports on China as well as other economies worldwide;finally considering both domestic and international factors it evaluates how industry subsidies and expanding import channels can promote China’s food supply security.The results show that: Research findings show that:(1)China’s international market share in wheat,corn,rice,soybeans and sugar is relatively low with small export volumes,indicating a lack of competitive advantage.These agricultural products have large trade deficits and high dependence on imports.Any interruption to imports would have negative impacts on the domestic economy;(2)Export restrictions on grain will lead to global economic recession and reduce the momentum of world economic development.In the most extreme case,global GDP would decrease by 11.165 billion US dollars and residents’ welfare would deteriorate by 8.194 billion US dollars;(3)For China,the more countries implementing export restrictions on grain,the greater its economic losses will be.For countries implementing such "protectionist policies",it will bring about complex economic effects as restricting grain exports can guarantee domestic supply of related agricultural products but may also cause a decline in domestic grain prices due to supply-demand balance;(4)China’s reduction or exemption of import tariffs for relevant agricultural products from "Belt and Road" countries can offset the economic losses caused by other countries’ export restrictions on our country’s grains.In addition,increasing production subsidies for domestic agricultural products in China can increase household income and welfare while boosting economic output.This study suggests that in order to hedge against the negative impact of other countries’ export restrictions on China’s economy,proactive measures should be taken to ensure domestic food supply security from both domestic and international perspectives.Externally,reducing import tariffs on agricultural products is a positive response strategy,while internally,increasing production subsidies for agricultural products can enhance the resilience of domestic supply and fundamentally guarantee domestic safety,which plays an important role in ensuring food supply in China.