Research On Global Cereal Agricultural Trade Network And Cereal Security Countermeasures In China

Grain,as a basic strategic material,has attracted worldwide attention.With the ongoing impact of geopolitical conflicts,extreme weather and COVID-19,grain prices have soared in many countries around the world,and grain security is facing severe challenges.With the continuous advancement of the process of global economic integration,the world agricultural products market is becoming more and more active,and the grain agricultural products trade is also developing constantly,which creates favorable conditions for China to use the international grain agricultural products market to regulate the domestic grain supply and demand,and also brings profound influence on China’s grain security.Therefore,how to improve China’s position in the global trade network of grain agricultural products is of great practical significance to improve the current trade pattern of China’s grain agricultural products and explore the new direction of China’s grain security.Based on the bilateral trade data of global grain agricultural products from 1990 to2021,this paper constructs a global grain agricultural trade network by using relevant theories of social network analysis and complex network analysis.The index of network node degree,network density,clustering coefficient and average path length in the trade network were measured,and the function fitting of degree distribution and cumulative degree distribution was carried out.Then,the network visualization software Gephi0.9.7 was used to depict the flow diagram of the global cereal agricultural products trade network in 1990,2000,2010 and 2020.Finally,through the change of China’s centrality in the network,the change of the status of eight grain agricultural products and the change of node strength,the pattern of China’s grain agricultural products trade network was analyzed.Based on the above research,the following conclusions can be drawn: From 1990 to 2021,the global grain agricultural products trade grid continues to expand outward,and more and more countries make up for the structural defects of their grain agricultural products by participating in the global grain agricultural products trade;The demand and trade volume of all grain agricultural products increased significantly,especially corn and wheat.From 1990 to 2021,the average nodal degree of eight grain agricultural products increased in different degrees.From the perspective of regional distribution,North America,Europe and Australia are the global trade centers of grain agricultural products.Node degree presents power law relation in distribution.The network density of eight grain agricultural products increased as a whole,the average clustering coefficient was relatively stable,and the average path length showed an inverted U-shaped trend.Through the analysis of the flow chart of the global cereal agricultural trade network in 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,it is found that the pattern of the global cereal agricultural trade network presents a trend of decentralization,and the network structure gradually presents a trend of diversification.China’s position in the global cereal agricultural trade network from1990 to 2021 is constantly changing,and gradually moving closer to the center of the global cereal agricultural trade network.Some cereal agricultural products show stage-like characteristics in the change of the trade network.The demand for staple food products,such as wheat and corn,is stable,while the demand for nutrient-rich products,such as sorghum and oats,is gradually increasing.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper mainly puts forward the following suggestions: ensure the quality and safety of grain agricultural products,enhance the network participation;Expand overseas markets through multiple channels to ensure grain export security;Expand the "circle of friends" of the trade network and enhance the centrality of its own network nodes;Deepen cooperation in the field of trade and investment in grain agricultural products;Based on their own actual conditions to ensure the safety of grain import;Strengthen response to extreme weather and build a grain security defense mechanism.