Research On The Influence Of Opening Up On Agricultural Technology Progress And Its Threshold Effect

With the increasing constraints of resources and environment,the agricultural marginal output of production factors has declined.Improving agricultural technology level and promoting the growth of agricultural total factor productivity have become an important way to achieve high-quality agricultural development.Theoretically,in the process of opening up,different economies can promote the transfer and diffusion of agricultural technology through trade,FDI and other ways to achieve agricultural technology progress.However,in practice,the impact of opening up on agricultural technology progress also depends on a country’s absorptive capacity for new technologies,which is deeply affected by agricultural services.The development of agricultural service industry can provide supporting human resources,machinery and equipment,as well as financial and insurance services for the use and promotion of new technologies,promote the absorption and transformation of new technologies,and improve the effect of technology transfer and diffusion.Therefore,in the context of the new pattern of comprehensive opening up and the high-quality development of agriculture,this paper based on the full analysis of the current situation and characteristics of China’s agricultural opening up and agricultural technology progress,uses the panel data of 27 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China from2004 to 2020 to construct the agricultural opening up index to quantitatively measure the level of agricultural opening up in each province,The change of agricultural total factor productivity in each province is calculated by DEA-Malmquist productivity index method.Finally,the impact of opening up on agricultural technological progress and the threshold effect of agricultural service industry are studied by using benchmark regression model and threshold regression model respectively.The research results show that:(1)The level of agricultural opening up in most provinces of China has been steadily rising,but the level of agricultural opening up in different regions is quite different,and the balance of regional agricultural opening up needs to be improved.(2)By measuring the level of China’s agricultural technology progress and analyzing the agricultural total factor productivity and its decomposition index,it is found that the main reason limiting China’s agricultural technology progress is the lack of driving force of agricultural technology efficiency.(3)China’s agricultural service industry is facing good development opportunities and is in the stage of rapid development,but there are still problems such as unbalanced development,inadequate development and weak strength,and there is still large room for development.(4)Agricultural opening up can significantly promote agricultural technology progress,and this process is affected by the threshold variable,the development level of agricultural services.When the development level of agricultural service industry exceeds the threshold value of 4.35%,the positive impact of opening up on agricultural technology progress is significantly enhanced.However,by 2020,the development level of agricultural services in nearly one third of China’s provinces has not yet crossed the threshold,which to some extent limits the role of agricultural opening up in promoting agricultural technological progress.The research results also show that natural disasters will inhibit the progress of agricultural technology,while the level of financial support for agriculture and rural human capital will significantly promote the progress of agricultural technology.Therefore,in order to promote the technological progress of China’s agriculture,this paper suggests that:(1)Continue to expand the level of agricultural opening up and strengthen the introduction of foreign advanced agricultural technologies.(2)Accelerate the development of agricultural service industry,improve its degree of marketization,specialization and scale,and improve the absorption and transformation capacity of foreign advanced agricultural technology.(3)Increase investment in rural human capital and strive to improve the level of rural human capital.