Research On China’s Grain Trade Security Based On The Evolution Of Network Pattern

With the continuous development of globalization,China has widely participated in the global grain trade,and the trade has a more and more important impact on China’s grain security.However,today’s world is experiencing changes unprecedented in a century,and the international environment is becoming increasingly complex.Instability and uncertainty have increased significantly.The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is far-reaching,and unilateralism and protectionism pose a threat to China’s food trade security.Therefore,this paper selects wheat,rice,corn and soybean as the research objects to study China’s grain trade security based on the evolution of food trade network pattern.In order to provide some reference for ensuring China’s grain trade security under the new situation,the characteristics of global and China’s grain trade pattern from the perspective of new trade relationship network are analyzed,and an index evaluation system of China’s grain trade security is established.The first part is the analysis of global and China’s grain trade network.This paper systematically sorts out the trade data of 222 countries or regions from 1990 to 2020,and builds a global and Chinese grain trade network.By visual means,the evolution trend of grain trade network is presented,the countries’ position in the international grain trade is evaluated,and a specific analysis on the development law and underlying mechanism of China’s grain trade network is made.The study shows that with the passage of time,the number of nodes in the four varieties of global trade networks has increased significantly,and the distribution has become compact.What’s more,the links between nodes have become complex from single and sparse,and there are more and more countries with high centrality in the network.China’s rice and soybean trade network structure has gradually enriched and connected,and the national distribution is more balanced,which shows that China has been committed to opening up more import sources to disperse risks.However,China’s wheat and corn trade network structure is relatively simple,and the trade flow is import.At the meantime,the trade partners are few and the concentration is high.The proportion of independent grain trade communities in the world have gradually increased,showing a trend of continuous development and expansion,and the evolutionary characteristics of separation and reorganization between communities have shown.In 2020,China’s wheat trade was in the Asia-America community.The rice trade was in the South America-Asia community.The corn trade was in the Asia community,and the soybean trade was in the China-Middle East-Western Europe community.The second part is the evaluation of China’s grain trade security.This paper constructs an evaluation system for China’s grain trade security indicators based on the complex network model,including degree centrality,self-sufficiency level,international market share,comparative advantage,international trade balance and import dependence,to analyze the trend of trade security evolution of various varieties over time and make horizontal comparisons.The results show that from 1990 to 2020,the centrality of the trade network of the four varieties in China have shown an overall upward trend,indicating that China’s influence in international grain trade has gradually increased.The self-sufficiency level of wheat and rice in China have shown an upward trend,which has been able to achieve complete self-sufficiency in recent years.The level of self-sufficiency in corn and soybean have shown a downward trend,and there is a large gap between domestic production and domestic consumption.The international market share of wheat,corn and soybeans in China is low,while the international market share of rice has increased significantly,which is more internationally competitive than other varieties.China’s wheat,corn and soybean trade comparative advantage is low,and their trade deficit shows an ever-expanding trend.The comparative advantage index value of rice is higher,and its trade surplus has a gradual increase trend.The import dependence of wheat and corn shows a downward trend.The import dependence of rice is small,and the dependence of soybean imports is rising.The third part is policy suggestions on ensuring China’s grain trade security in the new era.Based on the conclusions of the researches above,a comprehensive consideration and summary of China’s grain trade security is given,combined with the current international and domestic situation and the trade situation of different grain varieties.Furthermore,China’s policy suggestions for ensuring national grain trade security in the new era are given,including changing the domestic agricultural development model,building a diversified and stable trade network,striving for more initiative in grain trade,and actively deploying to ensure the smooth operation of grain trade during the epidemic period.