| The EU is in urgent need of an economic boost under the dual impact of the COVID-19 and post-globalization,and since China and EU are among the top three economies in the world,further bilateral cooperation will be conducive to the stable development of the global economy in the post-pandemic era.In the post-pandemic era,the CEE countries in "the Belt and Road" initiative have a more important strategic position.Although the CEE countries have different political choices in the great power game,the small country industrial policy of the CEE countries will make them dependent on the external market,and cooperation with China can stimulate their domestic development.CEE countries and China are both emerging forces and have great complementary advantages in bilateral cooperation.Since the COVID-19,China and CEE countries have maintained a close trade partnership,which has added strong momentum to the bilateral economies.How to continue to maintain bilateral mutual trust and interconnection,expand market demand and achieve international trade growth in the post-pandemic era has become a serious challenge for bilateral trade.The successful construction of China-CEE economic and trade cooperation demonstration zone and the new level of trade turnover at the second China-CEEC Expo are conducive to bilateral trade,overcoming the challenges brought by the COVID-19 and promoting economic recovery,injecting new momentum into the trade development between China and CEE countries in the post-pandemic era and setting a model for trade cooperation among emerging economies in the post-pandemic era.At the same time,under the guidance of national development strategies such as "the Belt and Road" initiative and the "16+1" cooperation mechanism,China will continue to develop healthily and play an active and important role in the development of the world economy.So,what is the potential of China’s exports to 16 CEE countries in the post-pandemic era? What are the factors affecting the potential? What is the extent of the impact?This paper first analyzes the development of China’s trade with CEE countries in the post-pandemic era by using the statistical method,and further analyzes it from three aspects: total trade scale,trade scale by country and trade structure analysis respectively.Using Intra-industry trade theory and Intra-industry trade index to explore the current situation of Intra-industry trade development between China and CEE countries.In order to solve the problem of overcapacity in China and further open up the trade channels between China and CEE countries in the post-pandemic era,the export specialization index and trade complementarity index are used to measure and analyze the complementarity between China and CEE countries.Secondly,the factors influencing the export trade potential of China and CEE countries are studied empirically through the extended gravity model,and the trade potential values between China and CEE countries are further measured.Based on the empirical study of the extended gravity model,the results show that the GDP of China and CEE countries in the post-pandemic era,whether they are members of the EU and the combination of tariff and trade freedom have significant effects on China’s export trade to CEE countries,while the distance between China and CEE countries and the investment freedom have no obvious effects on China’s export trade to CEE countries.Among the 16 CEE countries,all of them belong to the potential tremendous type.Finally,based on the above results,the last chapter of this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations to improve the level of export facilitation in China and enhance bilateral political mutual trust.Promote the diversification of China’s export fields and open up new market space.Deepen the cooperation of "16+1" cooperation mechanism to build the new development paradigm.Enhance the competitiveness of high-end product exports and advance to the middle and high-end of the global value chain. |
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