Research On Provincial Pork Price Transmission From The Perspective Of Association Networ

Pork is an indispensable commodity in China’s meat consumption structure,and its price has been widely concerned by people.In recent years,due to the multiple factors such as African swine fever,COVID-19 epidemic and severe international market,the price of pork has been "turbulent" nationwide.In addition,pork price not only shows a certain spatial linkage relationship among provinces,but also shows a certain correlation with other commodity prices within provinces.This phenomenon reflects that the fluctuation of pork price can easily lead to the problem of "one hair affects the whole body",which has seriously affected people’s lives.Therefore,it is necessary to deeply study the transmission mechanism of pork price in the province,so as to ensure the supply of pork and stabilize the price of pork.This paper focuses on the spatial correlation of pork prices,studies the spatial transmission characteristics of pork prices,and further analyzes the asymmetric transmission path of pork prices in different regional systems in the provincial pork market from a spatial perspective.The main contents are as follows:1)Based on the spatial transmission of pork prices among provinces,this paper analyzes the correlation of pork prices among provinces based on Granger causality test method of VAR model,and constructs the correlation network of pork prices among provinces,and further analyzes the network characteristics by combining social network analysis method.The results show that the pork prices in China are closely related,but there is still room for improvement.At the same time,it is found that provinces play different roles in the network and play different roles.Therefore,when perfecting the corresponding price early warning mechanism,we should incorporate spatial factors and build a cross-spatial price early warning mechanism;2)Taking the provincial pork price correlation network as the spatial weight matrix,the SMC model is constructed,and the transition probability matrix of pork price state is further analyzed to study the spatial transmission characteristics of pork price.The results show that the pork price state of each province is obviously dependent and persistent,and the pork price state of each province is not independent in space,and the pork price of the related provinces has certain influence.In addition,under the influence of the spatial transmission of pork prices in related provinces,the pork price state in provinces tends to shift to a spatial lag state.Therefore,we should combine the transformation characteristics of pork price state in each province,analyze the regulation strategy of pork production capacity,and improve the long-term mechanism for the stable development of pork industry chain in the province;3)Based on the established provincial pork price correlation network,the comprehensive index of pork prices outside the province is calculated and brought into the price transmission mechanism of the provincial pork market.The asymmetric transmission path of pork prices in different regional systems is analyzed by using the MS-VAR model.In addition,taking Guizhou Province as an example,the asymmetric transmission path of pork price in Guizhou Province is comprehensively analyzed.The results show that the asymmetric transmission characteristics of pork price in Guizhou Province are different under different market regions.According to the different regional conditions of the pork market,the corresponding multi-price control strategies are formulated in order to better stabilize the regional pork prices and ensure food safety.