Asymmetric Price Transmission In The Beijing Swine Industry

In the rapid development of swine industry,pig and pork prices fluctuate frequently and show significant asymmetry price transmission.Not only lead to the re-distribution of benefits in the industrial chain,but also to enlarge the market supply shortage and surplus in the market,hinder the development of swine industry,affecting the residents' consumption andeconomic development.In addition,according to the traditional economic theory to formulate the price control policy may produce more than expected amplification effect,this gives a serious challenge to establish the market macro-control polices.In view of this,this paper takes the swine industry in Beijing as an example,based on the perspective of the whole swine industry chain,studies the asymmetric both spatial and vertical price transmission.First of all,study the development status of Beijing swine breeding,slaughter,processing and transport,using ADF test,EG test and Grainger causality test to construct Beijing pig price transmission system.Then,study on the threshold effect of pigprice spatial transmission in Beijing by using TVECM model,study on the effect of vertical transmission asymmetry along industry chain in Beijing by using NARDL model.Based on the above research,this paper draws the following conclusions.Firstly,Beijing is a typical pork main sales area,there is a stable lo ng-term relationship between Beijing swine market and other provinces'(include Shandong,Hebei,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang);"Cost-Driven" and "Demand-Driven" coexist in the vertical price transmission.Second,there is a significant threshold effect on the price transmission between Beijing's pig market and other provinces',and transport distance explains 36% of the threshold effect;the effect of swine transportation on the price of pig in Beijing is greater than transferred area;to improvement of the market integration level of the swine production and pork consumption area needs to match the new swine transportation mode.Third,there is presence of both asymmetry in speed and asymmetry in magnitude of "Cost-Driven" transmission,only asymmetry in speedof "Demand-Driven" transmission.Fourth,The price asymmetric conduction will enlarge the swine price fluctuation effect and reduce the welfare level of each subject,but the asymmetry of different price conduction directions to different subjects.The innovation of this paper lies in: Firstly,based on the perspective of the whole industry chain,both horizontal and vertical analysis of Beijing swine price transmission characteristics.Second,this is the first time to introduce TVECM model and NARDL model to study the asymmetry of pork transmission in China,former can avoid arbitrarily set parameters,later allows for the jointanalysis of non-stationarity and non-linearity.Third,the paper is based on the weekly price of the swine industry in Beijing,provided by the Ministry of Agriculture,the Ministry of Commerce and the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Agriculture.Itallow to capturing the asymmetric behavior more accurately.