Analysis Of Dynamic Transmission Relationship Between Pork Prices On CPI And Classification Index

The Consumer Price Index(CPI)is a relative number that measures the price level of goods and services over time,reflecting the trend and degree of change in the price level of goods and services purchased by consumer.Keeping price stable is an important goal of monetary policy and a basic guarantee for the stability of residents’ lives.Pork is one of the most weighted commodities in the CPI basket.Since 2018,the pork prices have continued to rise,becoming the main driver of CPI rise.Exploring the dynamic transmission effect of pork price on the CPI and its classification index has obvious practical significance.This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of pork price index to CPI through direct and indirect transmission,and then uses the BDS nonlinear test and the rolling-window granger causality test to test the dynamic causality of pork price index to CPI and classification index.On this basis,this paper establishes TVP-VAR models to characterize the dynamic conduction effect of pork price index on CPI and classification index according to impulse response.Empirial results show that the transmission direction of the pork price index to CPI and different classification indexes are different,further more under the different economic backgrounds,the conduction effect of pork price index on CPI and classification index shows significant timevarying characteristics.The changes in the strength of the pork price index’s transmission to CPI and classification index are mainly affected by the size of the pork price index itself,the relevant government policies for regulating prices,and the economic environment and special events.