| Pork is one of the most important meat foods that people consume daily.With the continuous improvement of the living standards of urban and rural residents in our country,people’s demand for pork has undergone new changes.In recent years,there have been large price fluctuations in pork prices in my country,which has affected residents’ daily consumption.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the fluctuation characteristics and transmission mechanism of pork prices.In the related research of pork price,domestic and foreign scholars have achieved fruitful results in the research of pork price fluctuation and transmission mechanism,which has an important role for people to grasp the pork price fluctuation and transmission law.Current research mainly focuses on the characteristics and causes of pork price fluctuations,the transmission mechanism of pork price fluctuations,and the asymmetric transmission of pork prices.There are relatively few studies on the systematic analysis of the price transmission mechanism of the entire pig industry chain in my country.This article selects the monthly price time series data of corn,feed,piglets,pigs and pork from each link of China’s hog industry chain from January 2000 to August 2019,and systematically analyzes the fluctuation and transmission mechanism of pork prices in China.The content and conclusion are as follows:1.The volatility characteristics of pork prices in my country are analyzed,and the ARCH model is used to analyze that all links of the pig industry chain have significant volatility aggregation.The HP filter method was used to analyze the monthly and seasonal cycle characteristics of pork price changes in my country,and systematically analyze the overall trend characteristics of pork price development in my country.It is concluded that the price fluctuations of all links in the hog industry chain have significant fluctuation aggregation.There are no high-risk and high-return characteristics for the corn,feed,live pigs,and pork markets,while the piglet market has high-risk and high-return characteristics.In addition to corn prices,the price fluctuations of piglet prices,hog prices,feed prices,and pork prices are asymmetric.2.Analyzed the pork price transmission mechanism in my country,and analyzed the error correction model to find that there is a certain time lag in the price transmission of each link of the pig industry chain in my country.Using the SVAR model to analyze the relationship between the prices of each link,the price data of each link of the hog industry chain is tested for stability and cointegration,and it is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the prices of each link of the hog industry chain.Then through the error correction model to further analyze the transmission mechanism of pork prices in the hog industry chain,the strength of the calculated error correction term is 4.54%.Finally,by using impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the role of various factors in the pig industry chain,it is concluded that there is a certain degree of time lag in the price transmission between the upstream,middle and downstream of the pig industry chain.A comprehensive analysis of the asymmetry factors that lead to the transmission of pork prices in China is concluded that it is mainly affected by various factors such as market structure,information asymmetry,menu costs,etc.The price transmission is asymmetric.3.The countermeasures for stabilizing pork prices in my country are analyzed,and on the basis of the research results,specific suggestions for suppressing fluctuations in pork prices in my country are proposed.Analyzed the current inadequacy of China’s hog farming policy,and from the perspective of suppressing the fluctuation of pork prices in China,proposed to strengthen the production organization of domestic pork prices;strengthen the construction of pork cold chain systems;establish long-term price support policies;strengthen Specific recommendations for epidemic disaster monitoring and prevention efforts. |
PDF Full Text Request