Study On Fluctuation Of Rice Planting Area And Its Mechanism In Jiangsu Province

Stable and appropriate improvement of rice planting area is an important way to achieve stable national grain yield and yield increase.As an important grain production province and one of the major rice producing provinces in China,the rice planting area accounts for more than 40%of the total grain area in Jiangsu Province.Studying the fluctuation and mechanism of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province is of theoretical and practical significance for improving grain production capacity and ensuring national food security.Based on the data of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province from 1992 to 2021,using descriptive statistics,H-P filtering,and comparative analysis,exploring the fluctuation characteristics of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province.From the perspective of spatial analysis,the influence of rice planting area change on the fluctuation of rice planting area in the whole province is analyzed.An analytical model of the fluctuation mechanism of rice planting area was constructed,through a combination of factor decomposition method,quantitative and qualitative analysis,We study the causes of the fluctuation of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province,The general rule of the fluctuation of rice planting area,The policy enlightenment of promoting the stability and improvement of rice planting area in Jiangsu province is put forward.The main study results are presented as follows:(1)From 1992 to 2021,the overall planting area of rice in Jiangsu Province showed a fluctuating downward trend,decreasing from 2447.27 khm2 in 1992 to 2 219.20 khm2 in 2021,a decrease of 9.32%.The change trend of rice planting area in Jiangsu province is the same as that of the whole country,accounting for more than 7%of the whole country.In recent years,the status of rice planting area in Jiangsu province in the whole country has increased slightly.(2)The long-term fluctuation sequence of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province in 2003 and 2015 showed an "inverted N" shaped fluctuation decreasing trend,and the change range gradually decreased and the trend gradually stabilized.The short-term fluctuation sequence of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province can be divided into the "low peak-classical-strong"(1992-1999),low peak-classical-strong"(1999-2005),low peak-growth-weak"(2005-2016),low peak-classical-weak "(2016-2021);each cycle trough is gradually increased,the peak gradually decreases,and the stability of rice planting area is gradually enhanced.The long-term fluctuation trajectory of rice planting area in Jiangsu province and the whole country is basically similar,and the change range is greater than that of the whole country.In recent years,the gap between the decline range and the whole country is widening.The wave-range of short-term fluctuation of rice planting area in Jiangsu province is shorter than that of the whole country,the frequency is larger than that of the whole country,the change trend of wave peak and trough is consistent with that of the whole country,and the fluctuation range of each cycle is larger than that of the whole country.The change trend of rice planting area in Jiangsu province is basically consistent with the whole country,but the stability is worse than the whole country.(3)The overall decline of the long-term fluctuation of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province is mainly caused by the decline of rice planting area in southern Jiangsu province and central Jiangsu province.The growth of rice planting area in northern Jiangsu province is the key force for the long-term fluctuation of rice area in Jiangsu Province.From the perspective of short-term fluctuation sequence,the sources of each cycle fluctuation are different,but the basic performance is that the downward fluctuation of rice planting area is mainly due to the decline of rice planting area in southern Jiangsu,and the upward correction is mainly due to the increase of rice planting area in northern Jiangsu.(4)The decline of cultivated land area and the non-grain conversion of cultivated land jointly lead to the decline of the long-term fluctuation of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province.The adjustment of planting structure is the main reason for the correction of the long-term fluctuation sequence of rice planting area in Jiangsu Province from 2003 to 2015.Rice planting area short-term fluctuations in different time by the policy,natural environment,economic and technical factors,but the overall rice planting area short-term fluctuations in the mandatory policy and rice planting space under the rigid constraints,binding policy and agricultural technology development into economic power for rice production economic benefit,compared with other crops competition and the basic law of fluctuation.The implementation of mandatory policies and the limited space of rice planting are the main reasons for the gradual stabilization of the fluctuation of rice planting area.(5)For areas with sufficient reserve farmland,the increase of rice planting area can be promoted through the transfer of rice production focus and the adjustment of the grain trend of agricultural planting structure.However,when the cultivated land resources continue to decline,if strict protection measures are not taken,the rice planting area will fluctuate downward.With the demarcation of permanent basic farmland and rice functional areas,the further release of the spatial potential of rice production in Northern Jiangsu Province,the continuous improvement of coastal saline soil and the in-depth development of saline-alkali tolerant sea rice,the rice area in Jiangsu province still has some room for improvement in the future.However,the development of multiple crops needs to squeeze the rice planting space,the comparative benefit of rice planting is low,and the enthusiasm of farmers to grow rice is not high,which is a major challenge for the stability and improvement of the rice planting.area in the province.(6)In the future to protect and increase the rice planting area in Jiangsu Province,strictly control the measures;increase the investment in dry water improvement and high standard farmland construction in Northern Jiangsu Province,increase the investment and promotion in coastal saline soil improvement and saline-resistant sea rice development;protect and develop rice production space,and improve the rice production benefit by policy preference and technical substitution of labor factors to save production cost and develop rice industry economy.