| The proposal of the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goals accelerates the transformation of clean and low-carbon energy,and accelerates the construction process of building a new electric power system with the new energy resources as the main body and diversified development of electricity load.Due to the new energy resources such as wind and solar has the characteristics of intermittent,with an increasing proportion of the new energy resources participating in the operation of the electric power system.The output power of system is increased randomness and strong fluctuation.However,traditional thermal and hydropower source can hardly meet the flexibility requirements for new electric power systems.Demand Response(DR)can provide more cost-effective and flexible adjustment capabilities for new electric power systems.Compared with traditional solutions,it can effectively relieve grid operation pressure,reduce system operating costs,as well as change and shape electricity demand in a more economical way.In this way,the system adjustment ability and the new energy resources consumption can be greatly improved,which could better facilitate energy conservation and emission reduction.It is generally believed that in the traditional electric power system,the living environment of power users is stable,and the power consumption mode is relatively simple,and the power demand can be accurately predicted.Most of the traditional demand response potential assessment methods directly measure the adjustable load ratio of equipment,ignoring the actual process technology,economic constraints.The new electric power system is facing a high proportion of intermittent new energy access and load diversification.It is difficult to achieve a balance between supply and demand only by relying on the self-regulating ability of the electric power supply side.In addition,the three requirements of cleanliness,high reliability and low cost and multiple uncertainties due to the influence of factors,the system transitions from the original deterministic power balance of "source change with the load" to the multi-coordinated probabilistic power balance of "source grid load storage".Through safe and reliable flexible demand-side resources,users are encouraged to actively adjust the power load to achieve a balance between supply and demand.Not only is the solution small in scale and there are multiple choices,but it is also of great value to the power supply side,the grid side,the user side,and the environment.It can enhance the system regulation ability and effectively relieve the pressure of grid operation,thereby optimizing power distribution and making up for the unbalanced power supply and demand gap.Therefore,an accurate assessment of the demand response potential of various power users can guide the formulation of a reasonable demand response mechanism and electricity price policy,accelerate the construction of a new electric power system,and encourage users to participate in grid interaction to enhance system flexibility and adjustment capabilities.Based on the previous research results,this paper summarizes the conceptual methods of demand response and its potential assessment by sorting out the domestic research status,analyzing the characteristics and values of the new electric power system,and constructing a multi-level hierarchical demand response potential.Evaluate the model.First,identify the load characteristic indicators of typical power users in the industry.The author analyzes the energy consumption characteristics of power users in each sub-industry,and sorts out the power equipment that power users can participate in demand response.Secondly,the author quantifies the load characteristics of typical power users in the industry.On the basis of bottom-up idea,the improved K-means algorithm is used to calculate the total silhouette coefficient of the clustering results to obtain the optimal classification data,based on which the theoretical potential evaluation model of demand response is constructed.Again,in the theoretical potential of evaluation results,with the optimization goal of minimizing load variance and electricity cost,and considering technical constraints such as load response volume,response time period and energy balance.And the economic constraints is that participating in the response can save electricity costs.Based on the above,a demand response achievable potential assessment model can be constructed.And uses the MOEA/D algorithm for solving multi-objective model;Finally the demand response potential of typical industrial and commercial users in a certain region is calculated to verify the validity of the model.The analysis results show that industrial users have higher requirements for load reliability,most of which are primary and secondary loads,and basically operate continuously for 24 hours.Commercial load has obvious temporal variation and seasonal fluctuation trend,the diurnal peak-valley difference is large,and its flexibility is higher than that of the other industry in terms of adjustment time scale.The daily maximum load reduction of typical industrial users reaches more than 10%,and the response volume of valley filling reaches more than 10%;the daily maximum load reduction of typical commercial users reaches more than 18%,and the response volume of valley filling reaches more than 23%.In general,the average daily load value and peak-to-valley difference rate of typical users in the two industries have decreased after participating in demand response.The calculated of the potential of demand response of various subsectors can provides a theoretical basis and empirical evidence for how to develop and utilize flexible resources on the load side in the new electric power system,actively promote the integration of "source-grid-load-storage"development.And guide traditional large industrial loads and industrial and commercial interruptible loads to participate in electric power system regulation. |
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