A Study On The Impact Of Local Government Debt On High-quality Economic Development In Ningbo City

Since the National Audit Office conducted a comprehensive audit of local government debt in 2011,the high scale and disorderly development of local government debt problems have surfaced.The central government and local governments attached great importance to these problems,thus enacting various laws and regulations,strictly supervising and governing the amount of debt issuance,the application process,the use of funds and other aspects,as well as requiring debt information to be publicly disclosed in a timely manner.Therefore,under the regulation of national policies,the development of local government debt is going to the right track,but potential risk still exists.However,the 19 th Party Congress report clearly states that in the stage of high-quality economic development,we must win the battle to prevent and resolve major risks,so local governments are constantly strengthening debt control to prevent risks and moving toward the goal of high-quality economic development.There is no denying that expanding local government debt poses risks,but as a policy tool for our country,local government debt can promote economic development and act as an economic stabilizer when the economy suffers shocks.Scholars have done a lot of research on the relationship between local debt and economic growth.However,in the background of high-quality development,it is too narrow to only emphasize the growth of economic scale.So we turned our attention to the field of high-quality development to explore the impact of local government debt on high-quality economic development.In this thesis,the impact of local government debt on economic high-quality development in Ningbo city is studied.Firstly,relevant domestic and foreign studies are sorted out,so as to lay the theoretical foundation.Then,starting from the current situation,we analyze the development,composition,scale,structure,maturity structure,repayment,investment,risk of local government debt in Ningbo city,and construct a comprehensive evaluation index system to measure the economic high-quality development of Ningbo city by using entropy assignment method.The system evaluates the overall economic high-quality development level of Ningbo city from 2015 to 2020,as well as measuring the economic high-quality development level of 10 counties(districts,counties)in Ningbo city from 2016 to 2020.In addition,this thesis uses the Stata software to regress the panel data of 10 counties(districts and counties)in Ningbo for5 years by fixed effect model to empirically verify that local government debt in Ningbo has a positive impact on the high-quality economic development in the near short term.To further explore the influence,this thesis adopts the gray correlation analysis and uses multiple correlation calculation models to derive the degree of impact of differentiated local government debts on economic high-quality development.We mainly focus on four perspectives: debt balance,newly issued structure,maturity structure and fund investment.Finally,the conclusions are summarized based on the research analysis,followed with insights and recommendations.The conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)The balance of local government debt in Ningbo is growing within the limit.The Ningbo’s government has the ability to repay the government debt and strong anti-risk capacity,which is in line with the requirements of high-quality economic development.(2)The increase in local government debt in Ningbo has a positive effect on high-quality economic development in the short term.(3)Ningbo’s high-quality economic development can be reflected in six dimensions: degree of economic development,efficiency,structure,stability,fairness and greenness,involving ecology,employment,education,science and technology and other areas.(4)The increase of local government debt in different categories of Ningbo will have different degrees of impact.Specifically,the impact of general and special debt on economic high-quality development is higher than that of municipal debt;New bonds and refinanced bonds to be higher than replacement bonds;The impacts of bonds which funds invested in shantytown renovation,water conservancy construction and health care projects are generally at the forefront;The impact of 3-year and 10-year bonds also lies ahead.