Research On The Nonlinear Effect Of Local Government Debt On The High-quality Development Of Regional Economy

With the rapid development of China’s economy and the acceleration of urbanization process,coupled with the Central Government’s "4 trillion" economic stimulus plan in 2008,the local government’s demand for funds is rising,the scale of local debt is expanding rapidly,and the expanding local government debt has affected the stable development of China’s economy.At the same time,General Secretary Xi Jinping made an important conclusion in the report of the Nineteenth National Congress that "China’s economy has changed from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development".The concept of high-quality economic development requires us to strictly control the scale of debt and prevent debt risks.Based on this macro background,this paper studies the role of local government debt in the high-quality development of regional economy.Firstly,through reading a large number of documents,we can deeply understand the connotation of high-quality economic development,and construct a measurement system of high-quality economic development from nine aspects: efficient allocation of resources,perfect market mechanism,optimization of economic structure,stable economic growth,regional coordination and sharing,innovation-driven development,perfect infrastructure,economic achievements for the benefit of the people and the construction of ecological civilization.Then,we use entropy TOPSIS to measure high-quality economic development and evaluate the level of high-quality economic development in each province.Finally,panel threshold model is used to analyze the impact of local government debt on regional economic development.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)There are obvious regional differences in the level of high-quality economic development in China,which can be divided according to the scores.For the "star plate","mediocre plate" and "backward plate",it basically shows the gradient characteristics of "east high-middle mediocre-west low".(2)Local government debt as a whole promotes the high-quality development of China’s economy,but it has the characteristics of diminishing marginal utility.The national government debt threshold and the "mediocre and backward plate" threshold tend tobe the same,0.1381 and 0.1402 respectively,and the "star plate" threshold is higher than 0.2368.(3)There are differences in the efficiency of local governments in using debt funds."Star plate" provinces and municipalities are more efficient than "mediocre and backward plate" provinces and municipalities in using debt funds.(4)The improvement of urbanization rate,degree of centrality and the development of tertiary industry can significantly promote the high-quality development of regional economy in China,while the natural growth rate of population and foreign direct investment have different performances in different sectors of high-quality economic development.