| On April 10,2022,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified market,which clearly proposed to speed up the construction process of establishing a national unified market system and rules.It can be seen that improving the level of market integration and promoting the free flow of commodities are the economic construction measures that the state is focusing on at present.On the basis of reviewing the theory of regional market integration and combing the relevant research literature,this paper uses the annual panel data of nine cities and two districts in Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area from 2000 to 2020,uses the relative price method to measure their market integration level,and combines the unique economic and policy realities of Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area to establish the index framework of influencing factors of market integration in Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area.On the basis of theoretical analysis,a tvp-sv-var model is established,This paper makes an empirical analysis on the horizontal transmission effect among the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta,Hong Kong and Macao,and the vertical transmission effect between the overall market integration level of Dawan district and the three factors of China’s financial input,social environment and large market development level,In order to clarify the relationship between the fluctuations of the market integration of cities in Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay area and the short-term and long-term impact mechanism of various factors on the market integration of Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay area and the interaction of various factors.Through the research results of this paper,it is found that: Fristly from the perspective of the overall change of Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area,the change trend of the integration index of Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area is a gradual rising process,and the regional market tends to be integrated,but it has significant volatility and periodicity.From the perspective of the integration level of "city pair" between Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao,there is a relatively significant "inter provincial" boundary in the Great Bay area of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.The degree of integration and cooperation between Hong Kong,Macao and the Pearl River Delta is not as high as that within the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta;Secondly Hong Kong and Macao are mainly affected by their early integration level in the short and medium term,while the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta are mainly affected by their own integration level in the short term;The impact of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta on Hong Kong is greater than that of Hong Kong,which shows that the voice of the nine cities in the Pearl River delta still needs to be improved,while the impact of Macao on Hong Kong is significantly greater than that of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta on Hong Kong,which shows that Hong Kong,as a region with the same economic model as Macao,occupies an important position in the regional market of Macao,And has an important impact on its market development;Thirdly From the analysis of impulse response results,it is found that,compared with the social environment and the development level of the big market,the financial investment factor has an important impact on the construction of the market integration level of Dawan district.The former has a medium and long-term impact on the overall market integration of Dawan District,while the latter has a short-term impact on the market integration of Dawan district.It can be seen that,under the development of regional integration,the financial investment policy can have a rapid and great impact on the overall market integration of Dawan District,which is of positive significance to promote the effect of market integration of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Dawan district. |
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