Study On The Influence Factors And Potential Of China’s Coffee Export Trade

Since the 21st century,the globalization of agricultural trade has been continuously developed and promoted,trade between countries has become closer,and international agricultural trade has become a common way for countries to obtain the agricultural products they need.With the growth of the number of countries participating in the world coffee bean trade,the annual export volume of global green coffee accounts for about 80% of the annual output of green coffee,the export value of coffee beans is also in an upward trend,the coffee bean trade has been developed to a certain extent,there is no doubt that the global coffee market is entering a stage of rapid development.Considering the cognize improvement of the living levels of our people and the increase of the people’s consciousness of coffee culture,it is expected that the domestic coffee consumption market will continue to expand and develop,and the global coffee production will be further improved under the drive of the Chinese market.At present,China’s coffee consumption has shown a rapid growth trend,and the domestic consumption of coffee in China in 2020 has increased by nearly three times compared with2011.Therefore,in-depth and systematic study of China’s coffee trade,further expansion of China’s coffee export trade,and seeking new growth points in China’s coffee trade will be the main problems facing the common development of China’s coffee trade and coffee industry in the future.Based on the present international and domestic status quo of the progress of the coffee industry,this paper selects 41 partner countries that are closely related to China’s coffee trade,and uses the coffee export volume in the 13 years from 2008 to 2020,as well as the panel data of the gross domestic product,the total population,the bilateral trade distance,the coffee production,the dependence of foreign trade,the domestic consumption,whether to sign trade agreements,etc.and uses the gravity model to confirm the effecting factors of China’s coffee export trade,so as to determine the factors affecting China’s coffee export trade,and further through the gravitational equation to compute the trade potential of China and coffee trading partners,and finally according to the coffee trading partner countries trade potential type classification.The conclusions of the study show that the GDP of coffee trading countries,the total population of China,the dependence of foreign trade,the total output of coffee in China,The signing of trade agreement and other variables have a obvious active impact on China’s coffee export trade,and the bilateral gap between the two sides of the trading country has a significant negative impact on the export of Coffee trade in China.Among the results of the trade potential calculation,there are 10 countries with untapped trade potential(mainly concentrated in Asia),21 countries with trade potential expansion(mainly concentrated in Europe),and 10 countries with mature trade potential(mainly concentrated in Asia and Europe).Finally,from the perspective of tapping the potential of China’s coffee trade,and Based on the study’s conclusions drawn from empirical analysis,this article offers policy recommendations for expanding China’s coffee export trade for reference.