Arctic Oil Development Potential And Its Impact On The World Oil Supply Pattern

Relying on global warming,the navigation of Arctic waterway and the progress of drilling technology,the availability of oil resources in the Arctic Ocean has greatly increased,and the oil resources in the Arctic region are expected to realize large-scale development.Due to the objective reality that there are fewer and fewer easily exploited oil resources in the world and the increasingly fierce competition for global oil resources,countries all over the world turn their strategic attention to the Arctic region in order to seek new oil sources to maintain their own energy security.The increasing availability of Arctic oil resources and countries’ demands for polar resources have made the Arctic the focus of attention and competition among countries.The Arctic countries represented by Russia began to shift the focus of national energy strategy to the north.The Arctic region is rich in oil resources with strong development potential,and its possible impact on the world oil market can not be ignored.As an important energy base,the Arctic is expected to reshape the pattern of world oil supply.Combing the existing research results,it is found that although the industry and academia have a strong interest in the exploration and development of oil resources in the Arctic,there are few literatures to quantitatively evaluate the development potential of oil resources in the Arctic from the perspective of economics,and there are few relevant studies on how the development of oil resources in the Arctic will affect the world oil supply pattern.Therefore,this paper introduces multi cycle Hubbert model,generalized Weng’s model and scenario analysis to study the development potential of oil resources in the Arctic and its impact on the world oil supply pattern,which breaks through the bottleneck of previous qualitative research on this issue.In the empirical process,the article not only constructs the world oil production equation by integrating the economic theory and the current situation of the world oil market,but also distinguishes the oil resources distributed in different locations for the first time,and studies the development potential of Arctic oil in different locations and its impact on the world oil supply pattern.In the summary part,the article combs the research results of oil resources in the Arctic at home and abroad,and mainly introduces the research related to oil resources exploration in the Arctic,the research related to development prospects and values,the research related to risks and challenges faced by development,and the research related to the impact of oil resources development in the Arctic on the world oil supply pattern.The third chapter introduces the spatial distribution and development of oil resources in the Arctic with the help of descriptive statistical analysis.The fourth chapter studies the development potential of oil resources in the Arctic,focusing on quantitative analysis,which lays a foundation for the follow-up study of the impact of oil resources development in the Arctic on the world oil supply pattern.Russia,the United States and Canada are selected as the research objects.On the basis of combing the oil development in the Arctic in the third chapter,combined with the information effect in the oil peak theory,three different development scenarios are set,and the multi cycle Hubbert model is used to analyze the impact of oil resources in the Arctic on the future oil production of Arctic countries.The fifth chapter studies the impact of the development of oil resources in the Arctic on the world oil supply pattern.Firstly,clarify the research logic of the academic circles on the world oil supply pattern.Secondly,use the descriptive statistical method to analyze the dynamic trend of the world oil supply pattern in recent years.Finally,combined with the scenario analysis method,multi cycle Hubbert model and generalized Weng’s model,study the impact of the development of oil resources in the Arctic on the world oil supply pattern.The results show that:(1)the development of undiscovered recoverable oil resources in the West Siberian Basin,the north slope basin of Alaska,the northwest inland basin and sverdru basin in the Arctic circle can delay the peak oil of Arctic countries by four years.(2)The development of oil resources in the Arctic region can weaken the oil production position of the Middle East North Africa region in the world oil supply pattern.Specifically,compared with the reference scenario of not developing oil resources in the Arctic region,the development of oil resources in key Arctic regions can reduce the share of oil production in Arctic countries and the Middle East North Africa region by 1%,and the development of oil resources in sub key Arctic regions can reduce the share of oil production in Arctic countries and the Middle East North Africa region by 3.7%.With the passage of time,the exploration of oil resources in the Arctic has gradually deepened,and the impact of oil resources in the Arctic on the world oil supply pattern has gradually increased.In the short term,2030 will be the peak of oil resources in the Arctic region.In this year,under the assumption of developing oil resources in key areas of the Arctic and sub key areas of the Arctic,the difference in the share of oil production between Arctic countries and the Middle East North Africa region will be reduced to 3.67% and 2.26%.Finally,the paper gives some suggestions on the Arctic strategy of Arctic countries and China.Arctic countries should seize the opportunity,follow the trend,actively tap the potential of oil resources in the Arctic,delay the arrival of their own oil peak,and alleviate the contradiction between the supply of world oil resources.As a non Arctic country,China should clarify its own positioning,correct its mentality,and formulate a reasonable Arctic development strategy with a positive and pragmatic attitude.