The Arctic Route To World Trade Patterns And The Potential Influence Of China’s Foreign Trade

Arctic expedition data show that Arctic warming much faster than expected,the Arctic ice melting faster,is likely to appear in the 2050 summer ice-free state.Arctic route is connected on the Pacific and Atlantic Arctic waterways,into the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage in the narrow sense.After the opening of the Arctic route,will be connected to Northeast Asia and North America,the Nordic maritime transport corridor,the shortest distance to connect the world’s major offshore production and consumer market.Since maritime transport with low prices,large volume features more than 90%of international trade in goods relies on sea transport to complete,Arctic sea route transportation route change caused largely bound to affect the pattern of world trade.China’s foreign trade is also dependent on maritime transport,and China is in the core region of Northeast Asia,the Arctic route extension line.The opening line of the Arctic route will affect the China trade,making China routes to the Pacific in addition to the existing East and West to the Atlantic route,the increase in Europe and North America to reach a more convenient and secure maritime routes.This paper forces on the influence of the pattern of international trade and potential of China’s trade by Arctic route,concluding the scholars’ studies,combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,studying the influence of the navigation of Arctic route and measurement of potential of trade.Affirms the necessity and feasibility of our participation of arctic routesThis paper first describes the background and significance of research progress at home and abroad,as well as research methods and framework of this paper.Then,the paper describes the situation and status of the Arctic shipping routes of natural conditions.Besides of that,this paper analysis the influence of the pattern of international trade,finally,analyzing trading condition between China and neighboring countries of the Arctic shipping route.In the aspect of quantitative analysis,using the stochastics frontier gravity model to estimate China’s foreign trade potential and then compared with the current stage of China’s foreign trade potential.The results show that with the Arctic shipping routes,our import and export potential to enhance the 18%and export potential to enhance 26%.