Research On The Security Situation Of Potassium Salt Resources In China And Global Resource Governance

Potassium salts are mainly used in the production of potassium fertilizers,and they are an essential material foundation for agricultural production,with significant strategic importance for ensuring food security.However,the global distribution of potassium salts is highly uneven,with a large concentration of resources in a few countries,giving them a natural monopoly.Major countries in the world have already included potassium salts in their strategic mineral resources.Currently,with global population growth,increasing nationalism,and escalating local geopolitical conflicts,the demand for potassium salts is expected to continue to rise,potentially becoming a focal point of international competition.China,as the world’s largest consumer of potassium salts,relies on international imports for nearly half of its resources.Therefore,ensuring the security of China’s potassium salt resource supply and participating in global potassium salt resource governance to contribute Chinese wisdom are urgent key issues to be addressed in the new situation.Based on the above background and considerations,this thesis focuses on the scientific question of "global resource governance under the vision of safeguarding China’s potassium salt supply security".The main research contents are divided into the following parts:First,starting from the research paradigm of mineral resource demand patterns,theories of foreign direct investment,and global resource governance,this thesis reviews China’s potassium salt resource strategic demand and policy vision,and based on the summary of China’s overseas resource cooperation experience,proposes an analysis framework of potassium salt resource supply security and global resource governance logic.Second,the geological survey results of China’s conventional and unconventional potassium salt resources are reviewed,and the current level of economic and technological development in China is evaluated to determine the extent to which China’s potassium salt resources can guarantee its supply security.An IPAT-LMDI model is constructed to study the contribution of nine factors,including economic level,fertilization intensity,population size,crop value,per capita arable land area,fertilizer efficiency,technological level,industrial structure,and rural population,to China’s fertilizer consumption.Based on this,a potassium salt consumption demand prediction model is constructed using the S-curve law of mineral resource consumption,and the potassium salt consumption demand of China and other typical countries from 2022 to2050 is predicted.Then,a scientifically reasonable evaluation index system is constructed to systematically evaluate the security situation of China’s potassium salt resource supply from 2000 to 2022 and identify the weaknesses affecting China’s potassium salt security.A targeted evaluation index system for overseas resource investment layout is set up to ensure China’s potassium salt resource supply security as the core,and a Chinese overseas potassium salt resource cooperation system is constructed,comprehensively evaluating the investment environment of major potassium salt occurrence areas worldwide.Finally,based on the research findings on China’s potassium salt resource security situation and the current status of global resource governance,combined with the judgment of the future evolution of the global potassium salt resource supply and demand pattern,this thesis proposes a strategy for China’s global governance of potassium salt resources.Through the above research,this article has reached the following conclusions and understandings:First,global potassium salt consumption will continue to increase,with the consumption peak expected in 2045,reaching a maximum consumption of 51.142 million tons.China’s potassium salt consumption peak will occur around 2025,with an estimated consumption of 12 million tons,and China’s potassium salt production capacity is unlikely to have significant breakthroughs,and will remain at the current level.However,due to the insufficient reserves of potassium salt resources in China,unless there are significant breakthroughs in prospecting or mining technology,China’s potassium salt reserves available for supply will decrease to 8 years by 2035.Second,global potassium salt resources are concentrated in distribution,resulting in a high degree of monopoly in potassium fertilizer production,operation,and sales.Unless significant potassium salt deposits with a breakthrough significance in breaking the monopoly are discovered in countries with potassium salt scarcity,the current monopoly pattern of potassium salt supply will not undergo significant changes.Global potassium salt production capacity will continue to grow in the future,therefore,the potassium salt production capacity will be sufficient to support future consumption demand.However,due to constraints from financial markets and monopoly forces,there is a possibility of significant price fluctuations in potassium salt prices.Third,China’s potassium salt resource supply security is gradually recovering,with military security,geopolitical situation,and demand situation showing more obvious improvements.The instability of the global resource market,poor political stability of source countries for resource imports,and rapid depletion of domestic resource reserves have become the biggest factors restricting China’s potassium salt resource security.Fourth,We should build a strategic system for potassium salt with a "1+2+1" approach.All domestic potassium salt resources should be designated as strategic reserves,and potassium salt production should be limited to within 3 million tons.The potassium salt reserve system should be established promptly.A cross-departmental industrial coordination mechanism should be formed to achieve a supply structure of 1:2:1,comprising domestic production,overseas equity capacity,and international imports.The security of China’s potassium salt mineral resources should be considered in the overall global resource governance system,with systematic planning of overseas resource layout,continuous deepening of international cooperation,and the use of political,diplomatic,economic,and technological means to ensure the security of China’s potassium salt supply system.In this regard,this article proposes the following suggestions: First,deepen the innovation of potassium salt mineralization theory,broaden the scope of potassium salt resource prospecting,and promote innovation in potassium salt mining technology.Second,plan the overseas resource layout comprehensively,encourage overseas investment in potassium salt by enterprises,and attach importance to resource cooperation in potassium salt enrichment areas around China.Third,promote the construction of a resource cooperation system,and promote potassium salt cooperation in terms of politics,diplomacy,funds,technology,and engineering.Fourth,strengthen industry cooperation,establish industry alliances,and enhance international competitiveness.Fifth,improve the construction of relevant service guarantee organizations and expand communication and exchange mechanisms.