Study On The Influence Of The Potential Of China’s Foreign Trade By The Arctic Route

Arctic expedition data show that Arctic warming much faster than expected, the Arctic ice melting faster, is likely to appear in the2050summer ice-free state. Arctic route is connected on the Pacific and Atlantic Arctic waterways, into the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage in the narrow sense. After the opening of the Arctic route, China will be connected to Northeast Asia and North America, the Nordic maritime transport corridor, the shortest distance to connect the world’s major offshore production and consumer market. Since maritime transport with low prices, large volume features more than90%of international trade in goods relies on sea transport to complete, Arctic sea route transportation route change caused largely bound to affect the pattern of world trade. China’s foreign trade is also dependent on maritime transport, and China is in the core region of Northeast Asia, the Arctic route extension line, the opening line of the Arctic route will affect the China trade, making China routes to the Pacific in addition to the existing East and West to the Atlantic route, the increase in Europe and North America to reach a more convenient and secure maritime routes.This paper first describes the background and significance of research progress at home and abroad, as well as research methods and framework of this paper. Then, the paper describes the situation and status of the Arctic shipping routes of natural conditions and from a macro point of view of both opportunities and threats, qualitative analysis of the impact of Arctic shipping routes to China’s foreign trade generated After a detailed analysis of the theoretical basis of external research potential, namely generation, development and application of stochastic frontier model, as well as theoretical connotation of technical efficiency and calculation methods. On this basis, the paper selects the panel data of79countries for10years, the study sample, the use of stochastic frontier gravity model for both our export trade and import and export trade is estimated proved negative correlation with sea distance between China’s foreign trade relationships. According to parametric equations and technical efficiency obtained, the paper estimates the current stage of China’s foreign trade potential of the Arctic shipping routes and China’s foreign trade potential, and compares the two, and certainly the Arctic route to China’s foreign trade potential positive impact. The results show that the Arctic shipping routes could make shipping from China and countries in the sample reduced by20%-35%, so our import and export potential to enhance the8.48%average export potential to enhance the12.85%average, the potential terms of foreign trade after the opening of the Arctic route goals, China’s foreign trade is still great room for development. Meanwhile, trade efficiency between China and countries in the sample needs to be improved in order to give full play to the role of the Arctic shipping routes to promote China’s foreign trade.