| Small and medium micro-enterprises are the main force of the national economy.These enterprises have difficulty of developing due to financing problems.The supply chain financial model can effectively solve this problem by using Internet information technology,information integration and information sharing.The Internet and other platforms are widely used.Because supply finance is a special operation mode,it brings performance and also causes frequent risk problems.The main research object of this thesis is the risk assessment and prevention of supply chain finance,and the case is Suning in the e-commerce platform.The reason for choosing this case is that the supply chain of the e-commerce retail industry is currently in a development situation of high cost and low income.Coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,the development trend has also begun to deteriorate.As a representative of the e-commerce retail industry,Suning started its supply chain finance business earlier and achieved good results.However,compared with traditional financial institutions such as banks,the e-commerce retail industry is weak in risk assessment and prevention.When the economy goes down,it will inevitably face a strong risk problem.Therefore,this thesis takes the risk assessment and prevention of supply chain finance as a research topic,and analyzes the risk issues of Suning supply chain finance model as a case study,and provides a reference for the risk research of the entire industry supply chain finance model.Taking Suning as an example,this thesis analyzes the motivation and business model of Suning supply chain finance.It selects the financial data of Suning’s accounts receivable and accounts payable,asset turnover ratio,capital structure,debt service ratio,and operating profit from2015 to 2020 for analysis,and summarizes four supply chain financial models of Suning.There are seven risk categories,such as market risk,credit risk,and operational risk,which correspond to the model.The analytic hierarchy process is used to sort the risk importance of the seven risk categories.From the results,credit risk is the most important risk among all risks.Then,the credit risk of the core company Suning is expounded,using the number of shares in circulation,the number of restricted shares,current liabilities,non-current liabilities,and net assets per share in the mid-quarter financial data of Suning from 2014 to 2021.With the share transactions data,the KMV model is set up to measure its credit risk,and calculate its default probability.The empirical results show that Suning,as a core enterprise in supply chain finance,its default probability decreases internally with the increase of the company’s solvency,asset turnover,capital structure,operating capacity and supply chain operation,and externally.Is affected by the market,economy,policy and other macro environment.From the demonstration and research process of this thesis,we have come to the conclusion that if the supply chain finance of the e-commerce platform wants to achieve effective results and develop steadily,it is necessary to improve the quality of the enterprise internally,focus on controlling the financial risks of the supply chain,and the external needs to adapt to the changes in the macro-environment. |
