Research On Risk Identification And Assessment Of Virtual Supply Chain

With the rapid development of economic globalization and information technology,the external environment for business operation was undergoing tremendous changes.The market demand was changing rapidly and the customer demand was more individualized and diversified than before.The traditional form of supply chain could not respond quickly to changes of market.A single supply chain structure had limited the innovation and development of the supply chain,hindered the enhancement of cooperation efficiency among enterprises and also failed to meet the needs of new production.In this context,the virtual supply chain came into being.Although the virtual supply chain was an innovative form of supply chain,the virtual supply chain was different from the traditional supply chain structure and mode of operation,resulting in a new type of risk different from the traditional supply chain.In view of the current lack of research on the risk assessment of virtual supply chain,this paper constructed a virtual supply chain risk assessment model and applied it to assess the risk of the virtual supply chain.First of all,it analyzed the structural model and operating process of the virtual supply chain,summarizing the characteristics of the virtual supply chain relative to the traditional supply chain,laying the foundation for the following identification of the risk factors of the virtual supply chain.Secondly,we identified 37 risk indicators which were regarded as alternative indicators.We used web crawlers to collect virtual supply chain sample data,and used virtual supply chain disruption time to measure the impact of risk on the virtual supply chain.The paper used the significance test to examine the significance of the 37 alternative indicators in the sample of virtual supply chain with different levels of risk impact,leaving significant indicators to form the virtual supply chain risk index system.Thirdly,the article took the virtual supply chain risk index system and established the virtual supply chain risk assessment model based on the support vector machine.Particle swarm optimization(PSO)was used to find the optimal parameters of SVR,and the model was used to predict the virtual supply chain samples.The comparison between the forecast result and the actual virtual supply chain risk level showed that theconstructed virtual supply chain risk assessment model can predict the risk of the virtual supply chain and has ideal training efficiency and accuracy,so as to demonstrate the validity of the model.Finally,the custom-made virtual supply chain was used as an example to analyze the characteristics and current situation of the operation of the virtual supply chain.Based on this,the risk assessment model proposed in this paper was used to predict the risk of the virtual supply chain.