Research On Risk Identification And Assessment Of Supply Chain

Nowadays, supply chain risk management which is a very important issue in the supply chain management has a strong practical significance and is also one of the hot and difficult scientific researches. However, in supply chain risk management, the methods of studying and constructing the supply chain risk identification and the quantitative model of supply chain risk assessment are not only the most basic and the most important part of the theoretical foundation, but also a great practical value field. This paper conducts an in-depth study; the main innovations are as follows:1. On the basic of summarizing the domestic and international assessment methods of the supply chain risk, the assessment of risk under a traditional formula Risk = P(Loss)×Loss for calculating the risk value is likely to appear a "risk paradox" which is similar to the "expected utility" paradox, that is to say, it will appear some results which is not consistent with the people's reality decision-making activities; and this method doesn't bring the experience and intuition into the decision-making framework, ignoring the important roles of the experience and intuition in the decision-making process. Therefore, in this dissertation, the results and occurrence probability of risk incident are regarded as the property of risk decision-making, and it also raises a multi-attribute decision-making methods of the supply chain risk assessment based on the OWA operator.3. The source of supply-chain risk is very wide, and also exist many kinds of relevance. It's difficult, even impossible, for us to integrate all the origins of risk into one quantitative analysis model and then determine their relevance. In response to this dilemma, taking listed companies' supply chain network for research (the so-called listed companies' supply chain means the major suppliers, manufacturers, distributors are all listed companies supply chain), this paper has constructed supply chain risk measurement models with a higher degree of objective added value which is based on Conditional Value at Risk, and also has offered the corresponding risk management strategies.4. It has constructed a supply chain risk assessment model based on the affect among risk factors. The model includes risk network and risk communication calculated process. Risk network described the relationship of the affect among risk factors in supply chain; while risk communication calculated process offered the course of the risk communication and the risk movement regulation. On the basis of this model, carrying out the quantitative risk assessing from three degrees respectively: risk factors, nodes enterprises and the entire network. And then, it clarified the application of this model in supply chain assessment through a living example.So far, the limitations and shortcomings of the study about supply chain risk management are that most of the literatures have mostly focused on the qualitative research about supply chain risk assessment, while avoiding some supply chain risk assessment quantitative model, which is difficult to handle but is of practical significance. In this paper, respectively, it has constructed the framework of supply chain risk identification, the methods of assessing supply-chain based on multi-attribute decision-making, the methods of assessing the listed firms' supply chain risk based on CVaR in financial engineering and the methods of assessing supply chain risk in which risk factors are likely to be affected.