A Study On The Relationship Between Bank Credit And Ordinary Commodity Housing Price

In recent years, with the further implementation of the western developmentstrategy and the open border strategy, especially since the establishment ofChina-ASEAN Free Trade Area, a new southwest open order which on the basis ofYunnan and on the platform of Kunming is initially formed. Kunming, as the core ofurban economic circle in Yunnan, the real estate market of there developed rapidlyover the yearsand thus powered many related industries, so the real estate marketreally made great contribution to the prosperity of urban economy. However, realestate relys heavily on financial support. Affected by financial crisis, Chinese realestate market was in great recession during2008. Real estate rebounded strongly aftera short adjustment, and it bucked the market trend. How does Bank credit influencereal estate market once again become focus. What Kind of relationship between realestate prices and bank credit amount in Kunming after the financial crisis? If thereexists an interaction? If so, which is the reason and which is the result? With thesequestions, this article theoretically and practically studies the relationship betweenbank credit and real estate market from the views ofreal estate development loan andindividual mortgage loan respectively.In the first place, this article explains the background and purpose of selectedtopic, reviews the overseas and domestic research status in this field and sorts out thebasic framework. Secondly introduces the definition of real estate, real estate price,bank credit, etc. and the relationship among them. Besides, on those basis this paperanalyzes the interaction between bank credit and real estate price with considerationof the local equilibrium frame model. Thirdly, describes the development of bankcredit and real estate markets in Kunming and analyzes the bank credit reason for therise of the real estate price. Fourthly is the empirical analysis methods. In order toverify the interaction relationship, the data of kunming city from January2008toNovember2013was used for empirical testing, including unilateral co-integration test which decided by the housing price and commercial housing credit of kunming,interaction realationship test which based on VAR model. At last is the conclusionand policy suggestion.Through the analysis, we can draw several conclusions: the bank credit andcommercial housing price in Kunming are each other’s essential prerequisites. Theresults of unilaterally co-integration test which decided by the real estate priceindicated that there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between Commercialhousing price and loans, individual housing mortgage loans, GDP, per capitadisposable income, real estate investment. The error correction model displayed thatthe short-term fluctuation of commercial housing prices in Kunming is affected byindividual housing mortgage loans and real estate investment changes on the onehand, on the other hand it is affected by the error correction term. The results ofunilaterally co-integration test which is determined by the real estate credit scaleshows thatthere exists long-run equilibrium relationship among commercial housingprice, commercial real estate loans, mid-term and long-term interest rates. The errorcorrection model displayed that the short-term fluctuation of commercial housingloans is affected by commercial housing prices in Kunming on the one hand, on theother hand, it is resulted from the error correction term. The co-integration equationwas made through VAR reckon model and Johansen co-integration test. Underlong-term equilibrium, the commercial housing price is inversely proportional tocommercial housing development loans and proportional to the total amount of realestate loans in Kunming. Through variance decomposition we can found that thecontribution to the real estate price of commercial housing developer loans is greaterthan the other indicators. At last, based on the empirical results, this article makespolicy suggestions in three aspects, including broaden the financing channels of realestate, adjust and perfect the bank credit policy, improve the real estate marketregulation mechanism.