Study On The Spatial And Temporal Characteristics And Influencing Facters Of China’s Direct Investment In RCEP Member Countries

With the continuous spread of the epidemic,the global economic order continues to suffer heavy losses,and my country’s foreign direct investment is facing an increasingly complex international environment;however,there are opportunities in crisis,and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)is a new milestone in regional economic integration and new cooperation The establishment of the mechanism will lead to changes in the temporal and spatial characteristics of China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries.We first theoretically expound the impact mechanism of direct investment,and then construct a corresponding empirical model based on spatial measurement and quantile regression theory.This paper constructs a panel spatial econometric model and a panel quantile model,takes other RCEP member countries from 2003 to 2020 as research samples,and incorporates spatial effects into empirical analysis by constructing an economic-geographic nested matrix to study China’s direct investment in other RCEP member countries.The spatial and temporal characteristics of China’s direct investment in other RCEP member countries and the reasons behind it,and combined with the existing spatial and temporal characteristics to explore what factors affect China’s direct investment in other RCEP member countries under each quantile of China’s direct investment stock,and describe the economic and political aspects of other RCEP member countries.The dynamic relationship between the variables of RCEP and China’s direct investment is expected to enrich China’s research on direct investment in other RCEP member countries,and provide more targeted policy suggestions for the optimization direction and method of China’s direct investment in other RCEP member countries in the future.The results of spatial econometric regression show that:(1)my country has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on OFDI of RCEP member countries.(2)The political stability of third countries has a crowding out effect on my country’s direct investment stock in RCEP member countries.(3)The trade cost and export scale of third countries will promote China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries.The results of quantile regression show that:(1)The influencing factors of China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries have obvious heterogeneity.(2)In countries with more Chinese direct investment,a higher level of political stability(HP)will have a stronger impact on attracting Chinese direct investment;while in countries with less Chinese direct investment,changes in political stability have an impact on Chinese direct investment.The impact of investment is not significant.(3)In the RCEP member countries with more direct investment from China,the higher the level of market size(GDP),the stronger the impact on attracting direct investment from China,and in the countries with the most and the least direct investment from China,changes in market size have a greater impact on the market size.The impact of Chinese direct investment is no longer significant.The above results have passed the robustness test,confirming that the results are robust and reliable.Based on this,this paper proposes that China should continue to promote the implementation and deepening of RCEP,use "holistic thinking" to guide investment,release growth space in the region through trade and investment cooperation,and then drive the realization and improvement of market potential in the region.Strengthen trade between my country and RCEP member countries to drive the increase in investment.High-level free trade organizations are based on a high degree of political mutual trust.Therefore,my country and ASEAN countries should continue to deepen good-neighborly and friendly relations,establish more stable diplomatic relations with other RCEP countries,strengthen political mutual trust,avoid the penetration of anti-China forces,and form a stable growth investment pattern.At the same time,make full use of the investment facilitation clauses in the RCEP agreement to release the potential of trade and investment cooperation between China and RCEP member countries,form a stable growth investment pattern,strengthen trade exchanges with RCEP member countries,and actively strengthen multilateral relations.