Regional Characteristics Of China The Real Estate Market Prices, The Relevance Of The Real Economy--Evidence From Spatial Econometrics

The significant impact on China's economic development brought about by the high real estate market price has been the debate focus in both academic field and practice field,and continued, rapid increases in the real estate market prices has also been an important livelihood issue of the society in China.Many research papers have discussed the issues such as the imbalance between real estate market supply and demand, economic fundamentals drivers and so on, but few of them analyzed the interactive effects of real estate market prices in different urban areas from the perspective of spatial econometrics. Therefore, this paper adopted spatial VAR model and spatial panel data model to analyze the radiation effect and the physical factors of China's real estate market prices in a comprehensive and in-depth way, so as to give some scientific and reasonable explanation to the phenomenon of the current market and provide some reference to the macroscopic adjustment and control of our country.First, the article discussed the radiation effect of China's real estate market prices in major cities through spatial VAR model. On one hand, by constructing the spatial VAR model of the real estate market prices in major cities, the article analyzed the radiation effect in different prices in different cities and found that the real estate market prices that lagged one period in major cities had a strong and significant impact on the price of the current period. Besides, the result also showed that from the long-run equilibrium relations, the Shanghai real estate market prices had a certain degree of negative impact on their own prices. On the other hand, by constructing the spatial VAR model of the regional market price of real estate market, mainly focusing on the major cities, the paper discussed the radiation effect the real estate prices in major cities had on regional cities in the surrounding areas, and the empirical results showed that the housing price fluctuations in big cities such as Beijing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chongqing would have significant radiation effects on the real estate prices in the surrounding cities. In addition, from the long-run equilibrium relations, real estate market prices in Beijing and Wuhan had a long-term and significant impact on their surrounding cities.Second, housing sales price index, price index of land, leasing and consumer price index in different cities were used to construct three different panel data models, including fixed effect panel data model, spatial fixed effect model, spatial autoregressive error model to analyze the physical factors of real estate market prices comparatively. The empirical results showed that the effect on the level of the real estate market prices brought by the land prices weakened in the spatial model, and impact brought by the CPI were insignificant. Furthermore, rice fluctuations of rental prices had no obvious correlationship with the real estate market price.Therefore, Chinese authorities in the macro regulation and control of the real estate market should consider the spatial radiation effects in different cities when dealing with the soaring housing prices and other issues and adopt a more effective regional policy mix to adjust and control the increasing price of real estate market, so as to achieve the expectation of the policy effect.